The Dollar Trail

Why Price Analysis Asks a Different Question

Every other tab in the Finmagine Chart Builder is about the business — how profitable it is, how efficiently it runs, whether it is cheap or expensive relative to history. The Price Analysis tab is about the stock. Specifically, it asks: is the stock price keeping pace with the business, running ahead of it, or falling behind?

This distinction matters enormously. A company can have spectacular fundamentals — 25% profit growth, expanding margins, strong balance sheet — and still be a poor investment if the stock has already priced in ten years of that growth. Conversely, a business in a rough patch can be a great buy if the stock has fallen far more than the fundamentals justify.

For Indian investors in US stocks, the tab goes one step further. It answers a question that no standard screener in India addresses: what have you actually made in rupees? When AMZN goes up 110% in US dollar terms and the rupee depreciates 5% against the dollar in the same period, your rupee return is not 110%. It is higher. The Indian Investor Returns card computes this exact figure.

How to Open the Tab

1. Navigate to a company page on Screener.in (Indian stocks) or stockanalysis.com (US stocks)
2. Click the Finmagine icon in your Chrome toolbar — the analysis panel opens
3. Select the “Price Analysis” tab — it is the fourth tab, after Charts, Quick Analysis, and Calculated Ratios

Price vs Fundamentals — Is the Stock Earning Its Price?

This is the foundational panel of the entire tab. Before looking at any other metrics, this panel gives you a rapid verdict on one question: has the stock price been justified by the growth in the underlying business?

CATCHING UP

Price growth < Profit growth × 0.7

Potentially undervalued

FAIRLY VALUED

Price growth within ±30% of Profit growth

In line with fundamentals

RUNNING AHEAD

Price growth > Profit growth × 1.3

Potentially overvalued

UNKNOWN

Insufficient CAGR data

Focus on Risk Metrics instead

The Logic Behind the Badges

The status is derived by comparing the Stock Price CAGR (how fast the share price has grown) against the Profit CAGR (how fast earnings have grown). These two numbers should, over the long run, converge — a company that doubles its profits should eventually see its stock price double. When they diverge significantly, it signals either a mismatch to be exploited or a story the market knows that the data doesn’t yet show.

Status	What Happened	Possible Reasons	What to Check Next
CATCHING UP	Profits grew much faster than the stock price	Market overlooked the company; sector out of favour; short-term negative news overshadowed good results	Valuation tab — are multiples below median? Quick Analysis — is the health score strong?
FAIRLY VALUED	Price and profits grew at broadly similar rates	Efficient pricing; the market correctly tracked the fundamentals	Check 1Y vs 5Y trend — is this balance recent or long-standing?
RUNNING AHEAD	Price grew much faster than profits	Multiple expansion; speculative premium; market priced in future growth that hasn’t arrived yet	Is the Forward PE justified? Valuation tab — are multiples far above median?
UNKNOWN	Insufficient CAGR data	Recently listed company; data extraction issue; company does not report in standard format	Use Cyclical Analysis and Risk Metrics panels; open Charts tab and compare price with profit visually

The Price/Profit Growth Ratio

Below the status badge, the panel shows a Price/Profit Growth Ratio — the ratio of Stock Price CAGR to Profit CAGR. This single number summarises the relationship:

Ratio	Status	Meaning
< 0.7x	CATCHING UP	Price grew less than 70% as fast as profits — significant underperformance vs. fundamentals
0.7x – 1.3x	FAIRLY VALUED	Price and profits broadly in sync — market efficiency at work
> 1.3x	RUNNING AHEAD	Price grew more than 30% faster than profits — multiple expansion territory
Negative	Complex	One metric (price or profit) is negative — context required; cannot compute a meaningful ratio

Real Company Examples

Polycab India (Cables & Wires)

CATCHING UP

Price CAGR (5Y): 28%  |  Profit CAGR (5Y): 43%

Profits growing at 43% CAGR while the stock has only returned 28%. Ratio: 0.65x. Fundamental growth consistently exceeding price re-rating — one of the signs that preceded a strong re-rating in 2023–24.

Zomato (Food Delivery)

RUNNING AHEAD

Price CAGR (3Y): +120%  |  Profit CAGR (3Y): near zero

The stock surged on turnaround hopes and market share gains while the profit baseline was near zero. Ratio: undefined (profit CAGR cannot compute from near-zero base). Classic case where the badge alone is insufficient — check the Forward PE and profit trajectory.

Visa Inc. (US Payments)

FAIRLY VALUED

Price CAGR (3Y): +50.1%  |  Profit CAGR (3Y): ~45%

Price and profits moving in near-perfect lockstep. Ratio: ~1.1x. Market is pricing Visa accurately relative to its earnings growth — a sign of a large, well-covered company with no significant mispricing.

The Zero-Profit Trap: When a company goes from a small loss to a small profit, the “Profit CAGR” is technically infinite — and any stock price comparison becomes meaningless. The UNKNOWN badge handles this. For early-stage or turnaround companies, do not rely on the status badge. Use the Valuation tab (Forward PE) and Charts tab (revenue trajectory) instead.

The CAGR Comparison Table — Pattern Across Time

The status badge is a snapshot. The CAGR table is a movie. It shows Stock Price CAGR, Profit CAGR, and Sales CAGR across four timeframes simultaneously — 10Y, 5Y, 3Y, and 1Y. This is where patterns emerge.

🇮🇳 Indian Investor Returns — Your Actual Rupee Return from US Stocks

This card exists because of a gap that every Indian investing in US stocks has faced: how much have I actually made? Standard return calculators show USD returns. But you invest in rupees, and you receive rupees when you sell. The gap between what a US stock made in dollars and what an Indian investor made in rupees is real, measurable, and often substantial.

The Indian Investor Returns card in the Price Analysis tab computes this directly — for every US stock on stockanalysis.com, for 3-year, 5-year, and 10-year periods.

What the Card Shows

🇮🇳 Indian Investor Returns — AMZN (Example)

	3 Year	5 Year	10 Year
USD Stock Return	+102.9%	+149.2%	+858.7%
$ Boost (INR↓)	+5.3%	+9.8%	+27.8%
₹ Total Return	+114.1%	+173.6%	+1,127%

Returns are cumulative (not CAGR). Based on Yahoo Finance monthly data + mid-February USD/INR rates.

Row	What It Shows	Data Source
USD Stock Return	How much the stock gained in US dollar terms over the period	Yahoo Finance monthly closing prices (end-of-month, adjusted for splits)
$ Boost (INR↓)	The extra return gained purely from INR depreciation against the dollar	Hardcoded mid-February USD/INR rates per year, updated Feb 2026
₹ Total Return	Your total return in INR — what you actually made in rupees	Computed: (1 + USD%) × (FX_then / FX_now) − 1

The Maths — Step by Step

The formula sounds intimidating but the concept is simple. Your rupee return has two components: the stock’s USD gain, and the FX tailwind from INR depreciation.

AMZN 3-Year Return (Feb 2023 → Feb 2026)

USD Price Feb 2023 (monthly close): $97
USD Price Feb 2026 (monthly close): $204
USD Return = (204 / 97) − 1 = +110.3%

USD/INR Feb 2023: ₹82.6
USD/INR Feb 2026: ₹87.0
$ Boost = (87.0 / 82.6) − 1 = +5.3%

₹ Total = (1 + 1.103) × (87.0 / 82.6) − 1
         = 2.103 × 1.053 − 1
         = +121.4%

A ₹1,00,000 investment in AMZN in February 2023 became approximately ₹2,21,400 in rupee terms by February 2026 — combining the stock’s 110% USD gain with a 5.3% FX tailwind from the weakening rupee.

Why the Rupee Always Adds a Boost: The Indian rupee has depreciated against the US dollar in every single decade since 1975. In the past 10 years it fell from ₹68 to ₹87 per dollar — a depreciation of roughly 28%. This means an Indian investor in any US dollar-denominated asset receives a structural bonus return over time, even if the asset itself doesn’t move.

USD/INR Rate History (2016–2026)

The extension uses mid-February rates per year — the approximate midpoint of the month when most quarterly results and annual reviews happen. These are updated each February.

Over this 10-year window (2016–2026), the rupee depreciated +27.8% against the dollar. This is the structural “$ Boost” that all Indian investors in US stocks received on top of any USD return, regardless of which stock they held.

Five Real US Stocks: What Indian Investors Actually Made

These figures were validated against IndMoney ground-truth data in February 2026. The 3Y/5Y numbers are from Yahoo Finance monthly closes; the 1Y is exact (Statistics page daily price).

Accuracy Guide: Monthly Close vs Daily Price

The extension uses end-of-month closing prices from Yahoo Finance. IndMoney and most direct-investing platforms use the exact daily closing price on the date exactly N years ago. These are not the same number, and the gap depends on how volatile the stock was in that specific month.

Cyclical Analysis — Timing the Business Cycle (India only)

Cyclical Analysis is one of the most underutilised features in the extension. It answers a question that standard fundamental analysis cannot: does this company have predictable seasonal patterns in its quarterly profits? If yes, knowing which quarters are structurally strong or weak helps you time your entry — or at least prevents panic during expected seasonal dips.

Risk Metrics — Where Are You Entering?

Even a great company can be a poor investment if you buy at the wrong price. The Risk Metrics panel uses the 52-week High/Low range to give you an instant picture of where the current stock price sits relative to its recent history — and how much volatility it has experienced.

Market Position — Technical Signals for US Stocks (US only)

The Market Position panel is unique to US stocks on stockanalysis.com. It combines three well-established technical indicators — Beta, RSI, and Moving Averages — to give you a sense of where the stock sits in its short- and medium-term trend. These are not replacements for fundamental analysis but powerful complements to it.

Signal	Condition	Historical Interpretation
Golden Cross	50 DMA crosses above 200 DMA	Bullish trend reversal. Often follows an extended downtrend. Historically precedes above-average 12-month returns for quality stocks.
Death Cross	50 DMA crosses below 200 DMA	Bearish trend reversal. Often confirms that a downtrend is gaining momentum. Can produce false signals in volatile sectors.
Price > both SMAs	Current price above both 50 and 200 DMA	Strong uptrend. The trend is your friend — no strong technical reason to avoid adding.
Price < both SMAs	Current price below both 50 and 200 DMA	Established downtrend. Requires a compelling fundamental thesis to buy against the trend.
Price between SMAs	Price between 50 and 200 DMA	Consolidation or early trend change. Direction is undecided — use fundamentals as the primary guide.

The Most Useful Cross-Tab Combination: Market Position works best when combined with the Quick Analysis tab. Use Quick Analysis to establish whether the fundamentals are strong, then use the 50/200 DMA position to assess whether the trend supports your thesis. A stock with a health score above 70, a Golden Cross, and RSI in the 50–60 range ticks every box.

The 5-Minute Price Analysis Workflow

Used in isolation, each card tells a piece of the story. Used together, in the right order, the Price Analysis tab gives you a complete picture of a stock’s current positioning in under five minutes. Here is the exact sequence that extracts maximum insight.

Five Mistakes to Avoid

Mistake 1: Treating CATCHING UP as a Buy Signal By Itself

CATCHING UP means the stock price has lagged profit growth. That is a necessary condition for undervaluation, not a sufficient one. A stock can show CATCHING UP for three years and continue to lag because the market is correctly pricing in a quality or governance discount. Always verify with the Valuation tab (are multiples cheap?) and Quick Analysis (is the health score strong?).

Mistake 2: Treating the 3Y/5Y Indian Investor Returns Figures as Precise

For high-volatility US stocks like NVDA, the 3Y INR return can differ from IndMoney’s figure by 60–130 percentage points due to monthly vs daily pricing. Use these figures for directional sizing (“NVDA made roughly 7X in rupees over 3 years”) not for precise reconciliation with your brokerage statement. The 1Y figure is always exact.

Mistake 3: Selling a Quality Stock Because RSI is Overbought

RSI above 70 during a strong uptrend is normal. NVDA stayed above RSI 70 for much of 2023 as the AI wave drove demand beyond all forecasts. Selling a quality compounder because a momentum indicator suggests it has moved too fast is one of the most expensive mistakes in investing. RSI is a tool for context, not a trigger for action.

Mistake 4: Ignoring the Cyclical Badge During Earnings Season

If an Indian company is flagged CYCLICAL and you panic-sell during a structurally weak quarter (e.g., Q1 for an auto company), you may be selling precisely at the wrong time. The Cyclical Analysis panel exists to prevent this. Before reacting to a disappointing quarter, check whether the company’s Q1 has historically always been weak — if yes, the market likely expected it and the stock may already be pricing it in.

Mistake 5: Using Max Drawdown Without Fundamental Context

A 60% Max Drawdown can mean two very different things: (a) the business deteriorated fundamentally and the stock correctly repriced, or (b) a market panic hit a solid business temporarily. The Max Drawdown number alone cannot tell you which scenario you are in. Always check Quick Analysis (health score) and Calculated Ratios (interest coverage, D/E) before concluding that a large drawdown is an opportunity.

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