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Agree Realty Corporation
🏹 Trader: 🎯 Near 52W High View all →
$7.9B
Market Cap
40.7
P/E
3.79
PEG
3.8%
ROCE
3.5%
ROE
0.53
D/E
48.3%
OPM
-12.1%
% from 52W High
40
α RS
🔍 ADC is showing a high-conviction setup because it matches 5 of 39 tracked screener presets, it's within 12.1% of its 52-week high, and consistent_margins preset's Backtest win rate is 54.6% over 90 days. Net: Broad signal stack, not a recommendation. ? Conviction 52W High Backtest
Sources
Conviction 5/39 · 12.1% from 52W high · Backtest win rate 54.6%
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🌏 Global Investor Returns
Currency-adjusted total returns for ADC including FX impact
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📈 Price History
Ratio Health
Excellent
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By Category
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About

Agree Realty Corporation is a publicly traded real estate investment trust. The Firm is Rethinking Retail through the acquisition and development of properties net leased to industry-leading, omni-channel retail tenants. As of June 30, 2026, the Company owned and operated a portfolio of 2,825 properties, located in all 50 states and containing approximately 59.6 million square feet of gross leasable area. Agree Realty Corporation was incorporated in 1971 and is based in Royal Oak, United States.

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📈 Growth Pattern
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⭐ Superinvestors Holding ADC
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Manager Shares Value % of Fund Period
Steve Cohen Point72 Asset Management 211.9K $16.0M 0.02% Mar 2026

SEC Form 13F data. 45-day lag from quarter end.

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3-Statement Financial Model
Bear / Base / Bull projections · DCF fair value · Reverse-DCF
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📊 MIXED Agree Realty Q1 2026: $425M invested, record $1.4B forward equity, AFFO up 7.9% YoY
Revenue & Profitability
Core FFO per share was $1.13 for Q1 2026, up 8.1% year-over-year. AFFO per share was $1.14, representing 7.9% growth—the highest since Q2 2022. Full-year 2026 AFFO guidance is reiterated at $4.54-$4.58 per share. The company raised $658 million in forward equity during the quarter and had pro forma net debt to recurring EBITDA of 3.2x. Fixed charge coverage ratio was 4.2x.
Outlook
Management sees a K-shaped economy where leading retailers gain scale and market share by expanding brick-and-mortar footprints. The store is viewed as the hub of an omnichannel world, with announced store openings accelerating to reduce last-mile delivery costs. Convenience store evolution (e.g., 7-Eleven closing old formats, building large-format F&B stores) presents a multi-year opportunity. The macro environment is highly unpredictable but has not slowed tenant demand.
Growth Drivers
Key growth levers include acquisitions (Q1 was the largest quarterly volume since 2022 at $403 million), development (started 2 projects with $18M anticipated costs, pipeline meaningfully ramping in Q2/Q3), and the developer funding platform (DFP). The company targets $250 million per year in commenced development projects. Ground lease portfolio expansion and opportunistic recycling of capital (e.g., selling outlots 300 bps inside purchase price) also contribute.
Balance Sheet & CapEx
In Q1 2026, Agree Realty invested nearly $425 million across 100 properties via acquisitions, development, and DFP. The weighted average cap rate on acquisitions was 7.1% with an 11.3-year weighted average lease term. Development projects completed during the quarter represented a total investment of $23 million. The company's intermediate target is $250 million in annual development commencements, which it expects to hit this year.
Margins
Not discussed on a margin or operating leverage basis in this earnings call. The company highlighted strong AFFO per share growth and a dividend payout ratio of 69% of AFFO, with free cash flow after dividends expected to exceed $140 million in 2026. Credit and occupancy loss guidance for the full year is 25-50 basis points, with Q1 actual at 14 basis points.
Key Risks
Risks flagged include macro uncertainty (trade wars, geopolitical instability) that could affect the pace of investment activity. Management cited the possibility of credit loss assumptions (25-50 bps for 2026) and the dilutive impact of forward equity—treasury stock method dilution is estimated at $0.02-$0.04 per share for 2026. In Q&A, analysts asked about potential store closures (e.g., 7-Eleven) and the impact on Agree's portfolio, which management dismissed as non-material.
Generated by AI · Q1 2026 results · Not investment advice
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✓ 📞 Earnings Call Transcripts (5 quarters) submit a missing quarter
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📞 Earnings Call Transcripts (5)
Q2 2026 Q2 2026 2026-07-31
Record Q2 investment and portfolio growth drove raised full-year AFFO and investment guidance, with strong year-over-year earnings and dividend increases. Operational efficiency gains and robust liquidity position support continued expansion and risk management.
Q1 2026 Q1 2026 2026-04-22
Q1 2026 saw record acquisition activity, robust liquidity, and strong portfolio performance, with AFFO per share up 7.9% year-over-year and guidance reaffirmed. Development and DFP activity are set to ramp, while the balance sheet remains highly flexible and well-hedged.
Q4 2025 Q4 2025 2026-02-11
Delivered strong 2025 results with 4.5% AFFO per share growth, $1.6B in investments, and 99.7% occupancy. 2026 guidance raised for both investment activity and AFFO per share, supported by robust liquidity, an A- credit rating, and a stable, high-quality portfolio.
Q3 2025 Q3 2025 2025-10-22
Q3 saw record investment activity, strong portfolio growth, and a raised AFFO per share guidance. Liquidity and balance sheet strength were enhanced by an A-minus Fitch rating and new term loan, while occupancy and investment-grade exposure remained high.
Q2 2025 Q2 2025 2025-08-01
Investment and earnings guidance raised following strong Q2 results, with robust liquidity, high occupancy, and a focus on necessity-based retail. Development and acquisition pipelines remain strong, supported by operational efficiencies and disciplined risk management.
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📊 Analysis Methodology

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Financial Model
Projections are built from each company's audited annual financials (Income Statement, Balance Sheet, Cash Flow) over the last 5 fiscal years. Forward assumptions — revenue growth %, EBITDA margin, D&A (USD millions), interest expense, tax rate, and capex — are AI-generated using historical context and refreshed twice a year: after the December results season and after the September/Q4 results season.

DCF Valuation
Fair Value = Σ(FCFt / (1+WACC)t) + Terminal Value. Terminal Value uses the Gordon Growth Model: FCF5 × (1+g) / (WACC−g). Default WACC: 10% (US risk-free ~4.5%, equity risk premium ~5.5%). Default terminal growth: 3% (long-run US nominal GDP proxy).

CAGR Tracker
Expected 5-year CAGR = (DCF Fair Value / Current Price)1/5 − 1. Assumes fair value is reached in exactly 5 years — a mechanical estimate only.

Data Sources & Limitations
Financial statements sourced from public filings. Prices updated daily. Forward assumptions are AI-generated. All monetary values in USD millions. Non-US ADR companies may have currency conversion inaccuracies. Models are point-in-time and do not update intra-quarter or account for M&A, macro shocks, or extraordinary items.

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Investment Risk:
Investing in securities, including US equities and ETFs, involves inherent risks including the potential loss of principal. All investments are subject to market fluctuations, economic conditions, regulatory changes, and other factors that may affect their value. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This analysis is provided for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice under any circumstances.

No Investment Recommendation:
This analysis does not constitute, nor should it be interpreted as, an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any securities or financial products. Investors are strongly advised to conduct their own independent research and due diligence and to consult with a licensed financial advisor or an SEC-registered investment adviser before making any investment decisions, taking into account their individual financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives.

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Conflict of Interest Disclosure:
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Information Sources:
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