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Alaska Air Group, Inc.
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NYSE: ALK Industrials Airlines 🔎 Screen
$4.9B
Market Cap
60.6
P/E
0.25
PEG
4.4%
ROCE
2.4%
ROE
1.67
D/E
3.9%
OPM
-35.0%
% from 52W High
20
α RS
🔍 ALK is showing a notable setup because it matches 2 of 39 tracked screener presets and Sector RRG has Industrials in the Improving quadrant with the trail still strengthening. Net: Partial signal stack, not a recommendation. ? Conviction RRG
Sources
Conviction 2/39 · Industrials in Improving quadrant
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🌏 Global Investor Returns
Currency-adjusted total returns for ALK including FX impact
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📈 Price History
Ratio Health
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— Good
— Average
— Poor
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About

Alaska Air Group, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates airlines. It operates through three segments: Alaska Airlines, Hawaiian Airlines, and Regional. The company offers scheduled air transportation services on Boeing jet aircraft for passengers and cargo; and Horizon's and other third-party carriers scheduled air transportation services. It operates in the United States, Canada, Mexico, Costa Rica, Guatemala, Belize, the Bahamas, the South Pacific, Australia, New Zealand, and Asia. Alaska Air Group, Inc. was founded in 1932 and is based in Seattle, Washington.

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⭐ Superinvestors Holding ALK
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Manager Shares Value % of Fund Period
Steve Cohen Point72 Asset Management 410.7K $15.1M 0.02% Mar 2026

SEC Form 13F data. 45-day lag from quarter end.

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🎙 Management Tone Confident Vague ↓ Deteriorating 4 quarters Full tone analysis in Intelligence →
📊 MIXED Alaska Air Q1 loss $193M; fuel spike $600M; Bank of America deal adds $1B.
Revenue & Profitability
Q1 2026 GAAP net loss was $193 million; adjusted net loss was $192 million, or a loss of $1.68 per share. Total revenues reached $3.3 billion, up 5% year-over-year on capacity growth of 1.7%. Unit revenues were up 3.5% year-over-year. Fuel costs were $100 million higher than planned in Q1, and incremental fuel costs in Q2 are expected to be $600 million or more, representing about $3.60 EPS impact. Q2 EPS estimated at a loss of approximately $1 per share.
Outlook
Management noted that demand for air travel has remained resilient despite higher fares, with inbound yields on continental U.S. markets up 20%+ year-over-year and held unit revenues in those regions up double digits. They expect second-quarter system unit revenues could reach high single digits, with a path to 10%. However, fuel volatility driven by geopolitical events is a major headwind, with fuel prices recently ranging from $4.45 to $5.15 per gallon. The company is recovering approximately one-third of incremental fuel costs through higher fares.
Growth Drivers
Key growth drivers include international expansion: Rome launching next week, London and Reykjavík later this spring, all tracking toward full flights. Premium seat retrofits are over 90% complete, adding 1.3 million incremental premium seats. Managed corporate travel grew 19% in Q1, with international routes increasing corporate relevance. The loyalty program is gaining momentum with double-digit growth in Hawaii membership, cardholders, and card spend. The new Bank of America deal is expected to add 0.5 points of margin in 2026 and 1 point in 2027.
Balance Sheet & CapEx
Not discussed in detail in this earnings call. Management mentioned that capacity growth is among the lowest in the industry, with Q2 capacity up approximately 1% year-over-year, comprised entirely of long-haul international service out of Seattle. They reduced close-in capacity by 1 point in May and June, including reductions in Mexico and select late-night departures. The company is investing in crew training for 787 international flying and a single passenger service system cutover.
Margins
Management provided unit cost (CASM ex-fuel) guidance: Q2 costs are expected to be about 1.5 points above Q1 due to close-in capacity reductions, crew training for 787 flying, employee recognition expenses, and lapping asset gains. Unit costs are expected to inflect down in Q3 and Q4 to low single digits. The core cost structure is improving with productivity gains, lower maintenance costs, and structurally lower selling expenses. The new Bank of America deal adds 0.5 points of margin in 2026 and 1 point in 2027. Long-term, they aim to offset 4-5% core inflation through productivity.
Key Risks
Management flagged fuel volatility as the most significant near-term risk, with fuel costs in Q2 expected to be $600 million higher than planned, and a wide range of potential financial outcomes. Specific risks include geopolitical events driving fuel prices, the impact of severe weather in Hawaii (3,000% of normal rainfall in March) and civil unrest in Puerto Vallarta on demand. The company suspended full-year guidance until conditions stabilize. Other risks include airport cost inflation on the West Coast, and the need to bring Hawaiian employees up to Alaska rates through joint CBAs, with no timing certainty.
Generated by AI · Q1 2026 results · Not investment advice
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✓ 📞 Earnings Call Transcripts (5 quarters) submit a missing quarter
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📞 Earnings Call Transcripts (5)
Q2 2026 Q2 2026 2026-07-22
Q2 saw a net loss due to high fuel costs, but revenue, premium, and loyalty metrics all grew strongly. Integration milestones, international expansion, and cargo investments position the business for improved profitability and margin expansion in the second half and beyond.
Q1 2026 Q1 2026 2026-04-21
Q1 saw a $193M net loss due to higher fuel costs and weather disruptions, but revenues rose 5% year-over-year. Premium and loyalty segments outperformed, integration milestones were achieved, and management remains confident in long-term EPS targets despite suspending full-year guidance amid fuel volatility.
Q4 2025 Q4 2025 2026-01-23
Reported strong Q4 and FY25 results with adjusted net income of $50M and $293M, respectively, and exceeded synergy targets post-merger. Premium and loyalty segments outperformed, while FY26 guidance anticipates significant EPS growth and continued margin expansion, despite macro and fuel risks.
Q2 2025 Q2 2025 2025-07-24
Record Q2 revenue and strong adjusted EPS were driven by premium and loyalty growth, successful integration of Hawaiian assets, and robust cargo performance. Guidance for 2025 EPS is at least $3.25, with synergies and commercial initiatives tracking ahead of plan.
Q1 2025 Q1 2025 2025-04-24
Q1 saw a $166M GAAP net loss but strong premium and Hawaiian segment performance, with revenues up 9% year-over-year. Despite macro headwinds, integration synergies and loyalty growth are ahead of plan, and the company remains committed to its $1B buyback and long-term EPS targets.
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Financial Model
Projections are built from each company's audited annual financials (Income Statement, Balance Sheet, Cash Flow) over the last 5 fiscal years. Forward assumptions — revenue growth %, EBITDA margin, D&A (USD millions), interest expense, tax rate, and capex — are AI-generated using historical context and refreshed twice a year: after the December results season and after the September/Q4 results season.

DCF Valuation
Fair Value = Σ(FCFt / (1+WACC)t) + Terminal Value. Terminal Value uses the Gordon Growth Model: FCF5 × (1+g) / (WACC−g). Default WACC: 10% (US risk-free ~4.5%, equity risk premium ~5.5%). Default terminal growth: 3% (long-run US nominal GDP proxy).

CAGR Tracker
Expected 5-year CAGR = (DCF Fair Value / Current Price)1/5 − 1. Assumes fair value is reached in exactly 5 years — a mechanical estimate only.

Data Sources & Limitations
Financial statements sourced from public filings. Prices updated daily. Forward assumptions are AI-generated. All monetary values in USD millions. Non-US ADR companies may have currency conversion inaccuracies. Models are point-in-time and do not update intra-quarter or account for M&A, macro shocks, or extraordinary items.

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