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Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc.
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$2.7B
Market Cap
14.0
P/E
PEG
-5.6%
ROCE
-3.9%
ROE
0.01
D/E
-3.1%
OPM
-20.7%
% from 52W High
70
α RS
🔍 AMR is showing a high-conviction setup because it matches 3 of 39 tracked screener presets, RS Rating is 70, and graham_defensive preset's Backtest win rate is 51.8% over 90 days. Net: Broad signal stack, not a recommendation. ? Conviction RS Rating Backtest
Sources
Conviction 3/39 · RS Rating 70 · Backtest win rate 51.8%
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Currency-adjusted total returns for AMR including FX impact
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📈 Price History
Ratio Health
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About

Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc., a mining company, produces, processes, and sells met and thermal coal in Virginia and West Virginia. The company provides metallurgical coal products. It operates nineteen active mines and eight active coal preparation and load-out facilities. The company was formerly known as Contura Energy, Inc. and changed its name to Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. in February 2021. Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. was incorporated in 2016 and is headquartered in Bristol, Tennessee.

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📈 Growth Pattern
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⭐ Superinvestors Holding AMR
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Manager Shares Value % of Fund Period
Jim Simons Renaissance Technologies LLC 592.8K $121.7M 0.19% Mar 2026

SEC Form 13F data. 45-day lag from quarter end.

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🎙 Management Tone Cautious ~ Volatile 4 quarters Full tone analysis in Intelligence →
📊 MIXED Alpha Metallurgical Q1 2026 adjusted EBITDA $30M on 3.6M tons shipped; expects cost improvement rest of year
Revenue & Profitability
Adjusted EBITDA for Q1 2026 was $30 million, up from $28.5 million in Q4 2025. Cash provided by operations totaled $29 million. Capital expenditures were $40.7 million. Total liquidity stood at $476.2 million as of March 31, 2026. Cost of coal sales for the Met segment was $107.98 per ton.
Outlook
Management views war-related inflationary impacts as temporary and expects improved operational performance in volumes and costs for the rest of 2026. Global demand for high-vol coals is weak but supply issues from Australia support low-vol pricing. The company is watching index spreads and believes it can still achieve the top end of its cost guidance if inflation subsides.
Growth Drivers
The ramp-up of the Wildcat low-vol mine is a key growth driver, expected to increase production in Q2-Q4 2026 and shift more medium- and low-vol coals into Asian markets. The company is also evaluating its portfolio to align with market needs, particularly as supply disruptions create opportunities for U.S. low-vol coals.
Balance Sheet & CapEx
Q1 2026 CapEx was $40.7 million, up from $29 million in Q4 2025. No full-year CapEx guidance was provided. The company completed equipment maintenance at Dominion Terminal Associates during a planned outage.
Margins
Cost of coal sales increased to $107.98 per ton in Q1 due to lower volumes and diesel inflation. Management expects costs to decrease as volumes improve in subsequent quarters. The company reiterated its cost guidance range of $95-$101 per ton for the full year, assuming inflation subsides.
Key Risks
Key risks include the persistence of the Iran conflict causing elevated diesel and supply costs, which could push full-year costs above guidance. Freight rates have increased ~40%, impacting export competitiveness. The wide discount on high-vol coals and weak global demand continue to pressure margins. Management also flagged potential disruptions from port outages.
Generated by AI · Q1 2026 results · Not investment advice
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✓ 📞 Earnings Call Transcripts (5 quarters) submit a missing quarter
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📞 Earnings Call Transcripts (5)
Q2 2026 Q2 2026 2026-08-07
Q2 2026 saw lower EBITDA and shipments due to higher costs and storm-related disruptions at DTA. Shipment and cost guidance were revised, with 70% of met tonnage committed and priced. Market weakness persists amid subdued steel demand and volatile coal prices.
Q1 2026 Q1 2026 2026-05-08
Adjusted EBITDA rose to $30M in Q1 2026, with higher costs from war-driven inflation and lower volumes. Realizations improved, and operational performance is expected to strengthen in Q2 and Q3, though cost guidance may rise if inflation persists.
Q4 2025 Q4 2025 2026-02-27
Q4 2025 saw lower EBITDA and sales volumes amid persistent market weakness, but cost performance improved and liquidity remained strong. 2026 guidance includes 4.1 million tons in domestic commitments, with continued focus on operational efficiency and risk management.
Q3 2025 Q3 2025 2025-11-06
Q3 2025 saw adjusted EBITDA of $41.7M and record-low coal sales costs, despite lower met coal realizations and ongoing market softness. 85% of 2025 met tonnage is committed and priced, with 2026 guidance pending contract negotiations.
Q2 2025 Q2 2025 2025-08-08
Q2 2025 saw a sharp rebound in adjusted EBITDA and cost performance, with liquidity rising and cost guidance lowered for the year. Market conditions remain challenging, but operational efficiency and a restarted buyback program position the company well for future opportunities.
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Financial Model
Projections are built from each company's audited annual financials (Income Statement, Balance Sheet, Cash Flow) over the last 5 fiscal years. Forward assumptions — revenue growth %, EBITDA margin, D&A (USD millions), interest expense, tax rate, and capex — are AI-generated using historical context and refreshed twice a year: after the December results season and after the September/Q4 results season.

DCF Valuation
Fair Value = Σ(FCFt / (1+WACC)t) + Terminal Value. Terminal Value uses the Gordon Growth Model: FCF5 × (1+g) / (WACC−g). Default WACC: 10% (US risk-free ~4.5%, equity risk premium ~5.5%). Default terminal growth: 3% (long-run US nominal GDP proxy).

CAGR Tracker
Expected 5-year CAGR = (DCF Fair Value / Current Price)1/5 − 1. Assumes fair value is reached in exactly 5 years — a mechanical estimate only.

Data Sources & Limitations
Financial statements sourced from public filings. Prices updated daily. Forward assumptions are AI-generated. All monetary values in USD millions. Non-US ADR companies may have currency conversion inaccuracies. Models are point-in-time and do not update intra-quarter or account for M&A, macro shocks, or extraordinary items.

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Investment Risk:
Investing in securities, including US equities and ETFs, involves inherent risks including the potential loss of principal. All investments are subject to market fluctuations, economic conditions, regulatory changes, and other factors that may affect their value. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This analysis is provided for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice under any circumstances.

No Investment Recommendation:
This analysis does not constitute, nor should it be interpreted as, an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any securities or financial products. Investors are strongly advised to conduct their own independent research and due diligence and to consult with a licensed financial advisor or an SEC-registered investment adviser before making any investment decisions, taking into account their individual financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives.

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Conflict of Interest Disclosure:
The author and/or analyst may currently hold or have previously held positions in the securities discussed. Any such positions are not intended to influence the objectivity or independence of the analysis. This research is produced independently and is not sponsored, endorsed, or commissioned by any company or institution.

Information Sources:
The analysis is based on publicly available information including SEC filings (10-K, 10-Q), annual reports, management commentary, and publicly available financial data. Information is believed to be accurate as of the date of publication but may be subject to change without notice. Readers are encouraged to independently verify all information before acting upon it.

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