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Astrana Health, Inc.
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$1.9B
Market Cap
53.9
P/E
0.89
PEG
6.3%
ROCE
4.5%
ROE
1.93
D/E
3.1%
OPM
-20.5%
% from 52W High
79
α RS
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🌏 Global Investor Returns
Currency-adjusted total returns for ASTH including FX impact
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📈 Price History
Ratio Health
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About

Astrana Health, Inc., a healthcare management company, provides medical care services in the United States. The company operates through three segments: Care Partners, Care Delivery, and Care Enablement. The company offers care coordination services to patients, families, primary care physicians, specialists, acute care hospitals, alternative sites of inpatient care, physician groups, and health plans. Its physician network includes primary care physicians, specialist physicians and extenders, and hospitalists. The company serves patients primarily covered by private or public insurance, such as Medicare, Medicaid, and health maintenance organization; and non-insured patients. The company was formerly known as Apollo Medical Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to Astrana Health, Inc. in February 2024. Astrana Health, Inc. was founded in 1992 and is headquartered in Alhambra, California.

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📈 Growth Pattern
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⭐ Superinvestors Holding ASTH
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Manager Shares Value % of Fund Period
Jim Simons Renaissance Technologies LLC 104.5K $2.6M 0.00% Mar 2026

SEC Form 13F data. 45-day lag from quarter end.

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📊 MIXED Astrana Health Q1 2026: Revenue $965M (+56%), EBITDA $66.3M (+82%)
Revenue & Profitability
Q1 2026 revenue was $965.1 million, up 56% year-over-year. Adjusted EBITDA was $66.3 million, up 82% from the prior year. Net income attributable to Astrana was $14.4 million, and adjusted EPS was $0.74. Free cash flow was $64.1 million. Net leverage stood at 2.3x on a pro forma trailing twelve-month basis. Full year 2026 guidance: revenue $3.8–$4.1 billion, adjusted EBITDA $250–$280 million, free cash flow $105–$132.5 million.
Outlook
Management sees structural tailwinds from the 2027 Medicare Advantage final rate notice, which provides an effective growth rate of 5.33% and is expected to have immaterial impact from disallowed diagnoses for Astrana due to its conservative encounter-based approach. The company's 2026 guidance assumes a blended cost trend of approximately 5.2% and incorporates conservative assumptions for Medicaid and Exchange enrollment, with zero contribution from the HQAF fund.
Growth Drivers
Growth is driven by disciplined expansion of full risk contracts (80% of Care Partners revenue now full risk), the ongoing integration of Prospect which is tracking ahead of the $12–$15 million synergy target, and maturation of expansion markets like Southern Nevada (20% year-over-year MLR improvement) and Texas (full risk launch on Jan 1, 2026). The Care Enablement segment is also growing rapidly with a new client added in the quarter.
Balance Sheet & CapEx
Not explicitly quantified in the call, but management emphasized continued organic investment into technology infrastructure, AI capabilities, clinical operations, and expansion markets. AI agents are being embedded across claims, authorizations, care management, and patient engagement, with approximately 500,000 automated member interactions per month.
Margins
G&A as a percentage of revenue improved 70 basis points year-over-year to 6.4% in Q1 2026, and management expects to exit the year at even lower levels. Medical cost trends tracked slightly better than the full year assumption of 5.2%, with strong performance across both legacy Astrana and Prospect populations. Operating leverage is being driven by AI-enabled automation and platform scale.
Key Risks
Key risks cited include higher-than-expected Medicaid membership attrition (currently tracking at the high end of expectations) and Exchange attrition (improving but still uncertain). The company's guidance incorporates zero contribution from the HQAF fund and conservative assumptions across all lines of business. Adverse selection in Medicaid has been favorable but remains a monitored risk.
Generated by AI · Q1 2026 results · Not investment advice
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✓ 📞 Earnings Call Transcripts (5 quarters) submit a missing quarter
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📞 Earnings Call Transcripts (5)
Q2 2026 Q2 2026 2026-08-06
Q2 2026 saw 49% revenue growth and 43% adjusted EBITDA growth, with strong free cash flow and deleveraging ahead of schedule. Full-year guidance was raised, driven by organic growth, successful integration of Prospect Health, and expanding full risk contracts. Medicaid attrition remains a focus, but Medicare performance is strong.
Q1 2026 Q1 2026 2026-05-07
Q1 2026 saw 56% revenue and 82% adjusted EBITDA growth, with strong free cash flow and rapid deleveraging. Full risk contracts and AI-enabled efficiencies drove margin gains, while guidance for 2026 and 2027 remains robust amid favorable regulatory and market trends.
Q4 2025 Q4 2025 2026-03-02
Record 2025 results with 56% revenue growth, strong cash flow, and margin expansion driven by disciplined risk management, technology leverage, and successful Prospect integration. 2026 guidance reflects conservative assumptions and continued growth across markets.
Q3 2025 Q3 2025 2025-11-06
Q3 2025 saw revenue double year-over-year and strong EBITDA growth, driven by the Prospect Health acquisition and organic expansion. Updated 2025 guidance reflects a timing delay in full-risk contracts, with margin expansion and synergy realization expected in 2026.
Q2 2025 Q2 2025 2025-08-07
Q2 2025 saw 35% revenue growth to $654.8M and strong adjusted EBITDA, driven by full-risk contracts and Care Partners. Prospect Health acquisition closed at a lower price, improving leverage, with integration and synergy targets on track. Medicaid and exchange headwinds are seen as manageable.
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📊 Analysis Methodology

This comprehensive investment analysis was conducted using The Finmagine™ Stock Analysis & Ranking Methodology, a proprietary framework that systematically evaluates stocks across five critical dimensions: Financial Health, Growth Prospects, Competitive Positioning, Management Quality, and Valuation.

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Financial Model
Projections are built from each company's audited annual financials (Income Statement, Balance Sheet, Cash Flow) over the last 5 fiscal years. Forward assumptions — revenue growth %, EBITDA margin, D&A (USD millions), interest expense, tax rate, and capex — are AI-generated using historical context and refreshed twice a year: after the December results season and after the September/Q4 results season.

DCF Valuation
Fair Value = Σ(FCFt / (1+WACC)t) + Terminal Value. Terminal Value uses the Gordon Growth Model: FCF5 × (1+g) / (WACC−g). Default WACC: 10% (US risk-free ~4.5%, equity risk premium ~5.5%). Default terminal growth: 3% (long-run US nominal GDP proxy).

CAGR Tracker
Expected 5-year CAGR = (DCF Fair Value / Current Price)1/5 − 1. Assumes fair value is reached in exactly 5 years — a mechanical estimate only.

Data Sources & Limitations
Financial statements sourced from public filings. Prices updated daily. Forward assumptions are AI-generated. All monetary values in USD millions. Non-US ADR companies may have currency conversion inaccuracies. Models are point-in-time and do not update intra-quarter or account for M&A, macro shocks, or extraordinary items.

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Investment Risk:
Investing in securities, including US equities and ETFs, involves inherent risks including the potential loss of principal. All investments are subject to market fluctuations, economic conditions, regulatory changes, and other factors that may affect their value. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This analysis is provided for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice under any circumstances.

No Investment Recommendation:
This analysis does not constitute, nor should it be interpreted as, an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any securities or financial products. Investors are strongly advised to conduct their own independent research and due diligence and to consult with a licensed financial advisor or an SEC-registered investment adviser before making any investment decisions, taking into account their individual financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives.

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Conflict of Interest Disclosure:
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Information Sources:
The analysis is based on publicly available information including SEC filings (10-K, 10-Q), annual reports, management commentary, and publicly available financial data. Information is believed to be accurate as of the date of publication but may be subject to change without notice. Readers are encouraged to independently verify all information before acting upon it.

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