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Carnival Corporation Ltd.
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NYSE: CCL Consumer Discretionary Travel Services 🔎 Screen
S&P 500
$29.8B
Market Cap
12.8
P/E
0.48
PEG
11.9%
ROCE
25.6%
ROE
2.05
D/E
16.8%
OPM
-32.6%
% from 52W High
19
α RS
🔍 CCL is showing a high-conviction setup because it matches 4 of 39 tracked screener presets and fcf_machines preset's Backtest win rate is 57.2% over 90 days. Net: Partial signal stack, not a recommendation. ? Conviction Backtest
Sources
Conviction 4/39 · Backtest win rate 57.2%
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About

Carnival Corporation Ltd., a cruise company, provides leisure travel services. The company operates through four segments: North America Cruise Operations, Europe Cruise Operations, Cruise Support, and Tour and Other. It operates port destinations and islands, as well as owns and operates hotels, lodges, glass-domed railcars, and motorcoaches. The company offers its services under the AIDA Cruises, Carnival Cruise Line, Costa Cruises, Cunard, Holland America Line, P&O Cruises (Australia), P&O Cruises (UK), Princess Cruises, and Seabourn brands. It sells its cruises through travel agents, tour operators, vacation planners, websites, and onboard future cruise consultants. Carnival Corporation Ltd. was founded in 1972 and is headquartered in Miami, Florida.

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3-Statement Financial Model
Bear / Base / Bull projections · DCF fair value · Reverse-DCF
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Good quarter Investor Presentation One-Pager? Q2 2026
Revenue
$6.7B
N/A (record; YoY % not disclosed)
Net Income (Adjusted)
$0.569B
>20% YoY
What Went Right
  • Second quarter adjusted net income was a record at $569M, beating March guidance by $100M despite a nearly 30% increase in fuel prices.
  • Net yields rose 2.2% in constant currency, extending the streak to 12 consecutive quarters of record yields, with onboard spending and pre-cruise sales strong.
  • Customer deposits hit an all-time high of $9.0B, and the company ended Q2 93% booked for 2026 with less inventory remaining than last year.
What to Watch
  • The prolonged Middle East conflict primarily hit European deployments, especially Mediterranean itineraries, and drove a ~1 percentage point full-year net yield growth revision to 2.25% on a normalized basis.
  • Fuel prices were up nearly 30% year-over-year, and elevated crew travel and freight costs from the disruption added pressure, though full-year fuel/currency impact was less than $0.01 per share.
  • Lower occupancy was deliberately accepted in the back half, particularly in Europe, to preserve pricing; consumer sentiment remained at historically low levels during the quarter.
Management Guidance
  • Full-year 2026 EPS guidance of $2.22, up $0.01 versus prior guidance.
  • Full-year normalized net yield growth expected to be approximately 2.25% in constant currency.
  • Full-year normalized cruise costs excluding fuel per ALBD expected to be up approximately 1.3%.
  • Q3 occupancy expected to be roughly flat year-over-year.
Investor Lens
The investment thesis is stronger after this print: Q2 delivered record adjusted net income of $569M and revenue of $6.7B, while full-year EPS guidance was raised and customer deposits reached $9.0B. Management framed the Europe/Med yield moderation as transitory, noting 2027 European bookings were up mid-teens at higher prices and the overall 2027 booked position is at record price/occupancy. Cost discipline offset the yield cut by about 100 basis points, and $450M of buybacks plus the DLC unification add shareholder-return momentum. Key risk remains prolonged geopolitical disruption and fuel volatility, but recent booking trends suggest a turning point.
From investor presentation · AI-generated analysis · Not investment advice
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📈 STRONG Strong record quarter: adjusted net income $569M, +20% YoY, yields at records.
Revenue
Revenue was a record $6.7B, supported by 2.2% growth in constant-currency net yields and robust onboard spending. Customer deposits reached an all-time high of $9.0B, reflecting continued demand momentum.
Profitability
Adjusted net income was $569M, up over 20% year-over-year, and adjusted EPS came in at $0.41, up over 15%. Results exceeded March guidance by $100M, even with fuel prices nearly 30% higher.
Margins
Operating margin was not disclosed directly. Cruise costs excluding fuel per ALBD were flat year-over-year, outperforming guidance by about 250 basis points, and full-year normalized costs excluding fuel are expected to be up only 1.3%.
Balance Sheet
Net debt to adjusted EBITDA improved to 3.1x at the end of Q2 from 3.3x at Q1 and 3.4x at year-end 2025. The company generated over $7B forecast EBITDA for 2026 and repurchased $450M of stock to date.
Key Risks
Management flagged the prolonged Middle East conflict as the main driver of a ~100bp yield guidance cut, concentrated in Europe/Med with lower occupancy and higher airfare/freight costs. Fuel price volatility and historically low consumer sentiment were also called out, though June booking trends are already reversing the headwinds.
Outlook
Full-year 2026 EPS guidance was raised to $2.22, with normalized net yields expected up ~2.25% and cruise costs excluding fuel up ~1.3%. The company is 93% booked for 2026 at record prices and expects record yields in the second half.
Generated by AI · Q2 2026 results · Not investment advice
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✓ 📞 Earnings Call Transcripts (5 quarters) submit a missing quarter
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📞 Earnings Call Transcripts (5)
Q2 2026 Q2 2026 2026-06-23
Record Q2 results were achieved with net income up over 20% year-over-year, driven by strong demand, cost discipline, and robust onboard spending, despite geopolitical headwinds impacting European deployments. Full-year guidance was raised, and bookings for 2027 are at historic highs.
Q1 2026 Q1 2026 2026-03-27
First quarter 2026 results exceeded expectations with record revenues, yields, and customer deposits, driven by robust demand and strong onboard spending. Full-year guidance was raised despite a significant fuel cost headwind, and the new PROPEL strategy targets higher returns, disciplined growth, and substantial shareholder returns through 2029.
Q4 2025 Q4 2025 2025-12-19
Record 2025 results with net income up 60% year-over-year and EBITDA at all-time highs. 2026 guidance calls for over $3.45 billion net income, 3% normalized yield growth, and resumed dividends, with strong bookings and continued cost discipline despite industry capacity growth and macro volatility.
Q3 2025 Q3 2025 2025-09-29
Record Q3 results with net income up 10% over pre-pandemic levels, driven by higher yields and strong demand. Guidance raised for 2025, with robust bookings into 2026 and 2027, and significant progress on deleveraging and capital return plans.
Q2 2025 Q2 2025 2025-06-24
Record Q2 results with EBITDA and operating income at 20-year highs, yields up 6.5%, and net income exceeding guidance by $185 million. 2026 financial and sustainability targets were met 18 months early, and full-year guidance was raised. Strong demand, new destination launches, and a revamped loyalty program support continued momentum.
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Financial Model
Projections are built from each company's audited annual financials (Income Statement, Balance Sheet, Cash Flow) over the last 5 fiscal years. Forward assumptions — revenue growth %, EBITDA margin, D&A (USD millions), interest expense, tax rate, and capex — are AI-generated using historical context and refreshed twice a year: after the December results season and after the September/Q4 results season.

DCF Valuation
Fair Value = Σ(FCFt / (1+WACC)t) + Terminal Value. Terminal Value uses the Gordon Growth Model: FCF5 × (1+g) / (WACC−g). Default WACC: 10% (US risk-free ~4.5%, equity risk premium ~5.5%). Default terminal growth: 3% (long-run US nominal GDP proxy).

CAGR Tracker
Expected 5-year CAGR = (DCF Fair Value / Current Price)1/5 − 1. Assumes fair value is reached in exactly 5 years — a mechanical estimate only.

Data Sources & Limitations
Financial statements sourced from public filings. Prices updated daily. Forward assumptions are AI-generated. All monetary values in USD millions. Non-US ADR companies may have currency conversion inaccuracies. Models are point-in-time and do not update intra-quarter or account for M&A, macro shocks, or extraordinary items.

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