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Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.
S&P 500
🏹 Trader: 🎯 Near 52W High View all →
$48.4B
Market Cap
32.5
P/E
3.77
PEG
22.7%
ROCE
47.4%
ROE
1.79
D/E
16.9%
OPM
-12.6%
% from 52W High
56
α RS
🔍 CMG is showing a high-conviction setup because it matches 12 of 39 tracked screener presets, it's within 12.6% of its 52-week high, and fcf_machines preset's Backtest win rate is 57.2% over 90 days. Net: Broad signal stack, not a recommendation. ? Conviction 52W High Backtest
Sources
Conviction 12/39 · 12.6% from 52W high · Backtest win rate 57.2%
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About

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, owns and operates Chipotle Mexican Grill restaurants. The company sells food and beverages, such as burritos, burrito bowls, quesadillas, tacos, and salads, as well as kids’ meals, chips, and sides. It also offers Mexican-inspired meals using responsibly sourced meats, such as chicken, beef, and pork under the Responsibly Raised brand. In addition, the company provides digital ordering through its website, mobile app, and third-party delivery platforms. It operates in the United States, Canada, France, Germany, and the United Kingdom. Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Newport Beach, California.

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📈 Growth Pattern
📊 Quick Scorecard
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Manager Shares Value % of Fund Period
Jim Simons Renaissance Technologies LLC 903.1K $28.9M 0.05% Mar 2026

SEC Form 13F data. 45-day lag from quarter end.

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3-Statement Financial Model
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Mixed quarter Investor Presentation One-Pager? Q2 2026
Revenue
$3.3B
+9.3% YoY
Operating Income
$518M
-5.7% YoY
Operating Margin
15.7%
-2.5pp YoY
Net Income
$403.5M
-7.5% YoY
What Went Right
  • Comparable sales grew 2.2% with a second consecutive quarter of improving transaction comp (transactions +1.0%).
  • Chipotle Honey Chicken returned with cumulative attachment rate north of 25% and outperformed last year's launch.
  • Digital sales reached $1.3B, or 38.3% of total sales, up from 35.5% a year ago.
What to Watch
  • Restaurant-level operating margin fell 220 basis points to 25.2% due to higher labor, marketing and other operating costs.
  • Q3 comp guidance is only ~1%, assuming a ~200 basis point drag from the industry Cyclospora issue persists through the quarter.
  • Full-year cost inflation remains elevated, especially beef and freight, and pricing vs. inflation is only expected to align from Q4 onward.
Management Guidance
  • Full-year comparable sales growth raised to low single-digit range.
  • Q3 comparable sales expected around +1%, assuming continued ~200bps Cyclospora impact.
  • Q3 margin guidance: cost of sales just under 30%, labor in mid 25% range, other operating costs in mid 15% range, marketing low 3% range.
  • Full-year effective tax rate expected 24%-26%; 350-370 new restaurant openings including 10-15 international partner-operated restaurants.
Investor Lens
The thesis is moderately supported by improving transaction trends, successful LTOs and loyalty revamp, but near-term earnings remain flattish due to deliberate reinvestment and margin pressure. Management raised full-year comp guidance, though Q3 is guided soft with a consumer-caution and Cyclospora overhang. The multi-year levers (HEAP, catering, digital, menu innovation) are moving in the right direction, but investors will want proof that margins recover as pricing and inflation align in Q4 and 2027.
From investor presentation · AI-generated analysis · Not investment advice
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📊 MIXED Mixed quarter: comps +2.2%, restaurant margin down 220bps
Revenue
Revenue rose 9.3% to $3.3 billion, driven by new restaurant openings and comparable sales growth of 2.2%. Digital sales gained to 38.3% of total sales, up 280 basis points year over year.
Profitability
Net income declined 7.5% to $403.5 million, and diluted EPS was flat at $0.32. Adjusted EPS was also flat at $0.33.
Margins
Restaurant-level margin was 25.2%, down 220 basis points, with cost of sales up 80 bps to 29.7%, labor up 30 bps to 25.0%, and other operating costs up 90 bps to 14.9%. Operating margin fell to 15.7% from 18.2%.
Balance Sheet
Cash and investments were $800 million at quarter-end, with no debt and $500 million available on the revolver. The company repurchased $631 million of stock during Q2 at an average price of $32.55.
Key Risks
Management flagged slower industry trends and a ~200 basis point Q3 comp hit from the Cyclospora issue. Cost inflation in beef and freight, plus higher marketing spend, remain margin headwinds. Q3 also laps aggressive prior-year promotions.
Outlook
Full-year comp guidance was raised to low single-digit growth, with Q3 expected around +1%. Management expects pricing and inflation to align from the fourth quarter onward.
Generated by AI · Q2 2026 results · Not investment advice
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✓ 📞 Earnings Call Transcripts (5 quarters) submit a missing quarter
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📞 Earnings Call Transcripts (5)
Q2 2026 Q2 2026 2026-07-29
Revenue grew 9.3% to $3.3B with positive comps and digital sales reaching 38.3% of total sales. The Recipe for Growth strategy is driving transaction growth, menu innovation, and global expansion, while inflation and industry headwinds impact margins.
Q1 2026 Q1 2026 2026-04-29
Revenue grew 7.4% to $3.1B with positive comps and transaction growth, but margins declined due to inflation. Menu innovation and loyalty drove engagement, while new equipment and leadership hires support long-term growth. Guidance remains cautious amid a dynamic consumer environment.
Q4 2025 Q4 2025 2026-02-03
Revenue grew 5.4% in 2025 despite a 1.7% comp sales decline, with strong new unit growth and menu innovation. Margin pressure is expected in 2026 as inflation outpaces pricing, but long-term growth and profitability targets remain intact.
Q3 2025 Q3 2025 2025-10-29
Sales grew 7% to $3B with digital at 36.7%, but margins declined due to inflation and lower traffic from core consumer cohorts. Menu innovation, digital engagement, and operational improvements are key to the recovery plan, with gradual pricing and international expansion planned for 2026.
Q2 2025 Q2 2025 2025-07-23
Q2 sales rose 3% to $3.1B despite a 4% comp decline, with margins and EPS down year-over-year. Operational improvements, menu innovation, and digital engagement drove a return to positive trends, but full-year comps are expected to be flat amid macro volatility. Expansion and efficiency initiatives remain key growth drivers.
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Financial Model
Projections are built from each company's audited annual financials (Income Statement, Balance Sheet, Cash Flow) over the last 5 fiscal years. Forward assumptions — revenue growth %, EBITDA margin, D&A (USD millions), interest expense, tax rate, and capex — are AI-generated using historical context and refreshed twice a year: after the December results season and after the September/Q4 results season.

DCF Valuation
Fair Value = Σ(FCFt / (1+WACC)t) + Terminal Value. Terminal Value uses the Gordon Growth Model: FCF5 × (1+g) / (WACC−g). Default WACC: 10% (US risk-free ~4.5%, equity risk premium ~5.5%). Default terminal growth: 3% (long-run US nominal GDP proxy).

CAGR Tracker
Expected 5-year CAGR = (DCF Fair Value / Current Price)1/5 − 1. Assumes fair value is reached in exactly 5 years — a mechanical estimate only.

Data Sources & Limitations
Financial statements sourced from public filings. Prices updated daily. Forward assumptions are AI-generated. All monetary values in USD millions. Non-US ADR companies may have currency conversion inaccuracies. Models are point-in-time and do not update intra-quarter or account for M&A, macro shocks, or extraordinary items.

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Investment Risk:
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No Investment Recommendation:
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Information Sources:
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