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Elastic N.V.
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NYSE: ESTC Technology IT 🔎 Screen
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$9.9B
Market Cap
18.0
P/E
0.87
PEG
-1.7%
ROCE
32.4%
ROE
0.46
D/E
-1.4%
OPM
-8.7%
% from 52W High
88
α RS
🔍 ESTC is showing a multi-screen setup because it matches 12 of 39 tracked screener presets, Sector RRG has Technology in the Improving quadrant with the trail still strengthening, RS Rating is 88, and it has maintained a 35-day Near 52-Week High momentum persistence. The main caution: the Magic Formula preset's Backtest win rate is only 47.9%. Net: Mixed signal stack, not a recommendation. ? Conviction RRG RS Rating Momentum Streaks Backtest
Sources
Conviction 12/39 · Technology in Improving quadrant · RS Rating 88 · Near 52-Week High streak: 35d · Backtest win rate 47.9%
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Currency-adjusted total returns for ESTC including FX impact
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📈 Price History
Ratio Health
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About

Elastic N.V., a search artificial intelligence (AI) company, provides software platforms to run in hybrid, public or private clouds, and multi-cloud environments in the United States and internationally. It primarily offers Elasticsearch Platform, a set of software products that ingest and store data from various sources and formats, as well as performs search, analysis, and visualization on that data. The company also provides Elastic search product a distributed, real-time vector database and analytics engine and data store for all types of data, including textual, numerical, geospatial, structured, and unstructured; Kibana, a user interface, management, and configuration interface for the platforms; Search & AI, a platform with retrieval algorithms and the ability to integrate with large language models; and elastic security, a security solution that provides unified protection to prevent, detect, and respond to threats. In addition, it offers Elastic Observability, a solution that brings unified datastore, including Logs analytics to search, analyze, and visualize petabytes of structured and unstructured logs; infrastructure monitoring to gain visibility across cloud, on-premises, Kubernetes, serverless, and hosts; Application Performance Monitoring to support native production-grade; digital experience monitoring; large language models; and Elastic Cloud, a cloud-based subscription offering such as Elastic Cloud Hosted and Elastic Cloud Serverless. The company was incorporated in 2012 and is based in Amsterdam, the Netherlands.

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📈 Growth Pattern
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3-Statement Financial Model
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📊 MIXED Elastic Q4 FY26: 16% revenue growth, CRPO accelerates to 20%
Revenue & Profitability
Q4 total revenue: $451M (16% Y/Y). CRPO: $1.2B, accelerating to 20% growth. RPO: $1.98B, growing 28% (27.4% constant currency). Non-GAAP operating margin: 14.8% in Q4, 16.4% for full fiscal 2026. Non-GAAP EPS guidance Q1 FY27: $0.57-$0.59; full-year FY27 revenue guidance: $1.985B-$2.0B (14.6% Y/Y at midpoint).
Outlook
Management sees AI as a fundamental market evolution driving long-term tailwinds. Customers are making larger multi-year commitments, leading to accelerating CRPO. The company expects revenue growth to accelerate through FY27, driven by existing commitments and increasing sales capacity. No specific macro headwinds were highlighted.
Growth Drivers
Key growth levers include Search (with AI), Security (displacing legacy vendors), and Observability (new metrics offering). The U.S. public sector is a growing segment, with cloud commitments from CISA agencies. Multi-million-dollar ACV customers increased: >$1M cohort grew 14%, >$5M cohort grew 30%. Over 600 customers over $100K ACV use AI capabilities.
Balance Sheet & CapEx
Not discussed in this earnings call. Management mentioned expanding sales headcount and a net headcount increase in FY27, but no specific CapEx numbers were provided.
Margins
Non-GAAP operating margin for FY26 was 16.4%, with Q4 at 14.8%. For FY27, management guided ~19% operating margin, with adjusted free cash flow margin of 21.5%. Medium-term FY29 operating margin target was raised to approximately 25%. AI productivity gains are expected to drive structural efficiency without slowing sales headcount growth.
Key Risks
Risks mentioned include variability in cloud versus self-managed commitment mix, which impacts in-quarter revenue recognition. Consumption patterns, foreign exchange, and timing of large deals are other risks. Not discussed: specific macroeconomic or competitive threats.
Generated by AI · Q4 2026 results · Not investment advice
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✓ 📞 Earnings Call Transcripts (5 quarters) submit a missing quarter
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📞 Earnings Call Transcripts (5)
Q4 2026 Q4 2026 2026-05-28
Q4 and FY 2026 results exceeded guidance, with strong revenue growth, expanding margins, and accelerating customer commitments driven by AI adoption. FY 2027 guidance calls for continued double-digit growth, margin expansion, and increased free cash flow, supported by robust multi-year deals and platform innovation.
Q3 2026 Q3 2026 2026-02-26
Q3 saw 18% revenue growth and strong operating margins, with accelerating AI adoption and large deal momentum. Guidance for FY26 was raised, reflecting robust demand across cloud and Self-Managed offerings, and continued expansion in AI use cases.
Q2 2026 Q2 2026 2025-11-20
Q2 saw 16% revenue growth and strong operating margins, driven by robust AI adoption, large deal momentum, and expansion in both cloud and self-managed offerings. Guidance for FY26 was raised, with continued investment in AI and a $500M share repurchase underway.
Q1 2026 Q1 2026 2025-08-28
Q1 revenue grew 20% year-over-year to $415M, with strong sales-led subscription growth and broad-based performance across cloud and self-managed segments. Security and observability benefited from AI-driven innovation, and fiscal 2026 guidance was raised on continued momentum.
Q4 2025 Q4 2025 2025-05-29
Q4 and FY 2025 results exceeded guidance, with 16% revenue growth and strong AI-driven demand. Cloud revenue grew 23%, and the company added record numbers of large customers. FY 2026 guidance is prudent due to macro uncertainty, but strong margins and continued AI adoption are expected.
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📊 Analysis Methodology

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Financial Model
Projections are built from each company's audited annual financials (Income Statement, Balance Sheet, Cash Flow) over the last 5 fiscal years. Forward assumptions — revenue growth %, EBITDA margin, D&A (USD millions), interest expense, tax rate, and capex — are AI-generated using historical context and refreshed twice a year: after the December results season and after the September/Q4 results season.

DCF Valuation
Fair Value = Σ(FCFt / (1+WACC)t) + Terminal Value. Terminal Value uses the Gordon Growth Model: FCF5 × (1+g) / (WACC−g). Default WACC: 10% (US risk-free ~4.5%, equity risk premium ~5.5%). Default terminal growth: 3% (long-run US nominal GDP proxy).

CAGR Tracker
Expected 5-year CAGR = (DCF Fair Value / Current Price)1/5 − 1. Assumes fair value is reached in exactly 5 years — a mechanical estimate only.

Data Sources & Limitations
Financial statements sourced from public filings. Prices updated daily. Forward assumptions are AI-generated. All monetary values in USD millions. Non-US ADR companies may have currency conversion inaccuracies. Models are point-in-time and do not update intra-quarter or account for M&A, macro shocks, or extraordinary items.

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Investment Risk:
Investing in securities, including US equities and ETFs, involves inherent risks including the potential loss of principal. All investments are subject to market fluctuations, economic conditions, regulatory changes, and other factors that may affect their value. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This analysis is provided for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice under any circumstances.

No Investment Recommendation:
This analysis does not constitute, nor should it be interpreted as, an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any securities or financial products. Investors are strongly advised to conduct their own independent research and due diligence and to consult with a licensed financial advisor or an SEC-registered investment adviser before making any investment decisions, taking into account their individual financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives.

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Conflict of Interest Disclosure:
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Information Sources:
The analysis is based on publicly available information including SEC filings (10-K, 10-Q), annual reports, management commentary, and publicly available financial data. Information is believed to be accurate as of the date of publication but may be subject to change without notice. Readers are encouraged to independently verify all information before acting upon it.

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