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Meritage Homes Corporation
$4.4B
Market Cap
10.4
P/E
1.05
PEG
7.1%
ROCE
8.8%
ROE
0.36
D/E
9.6%
OPM
-24.6%
% from 52W High
26
α RS
🔍 MTH is showing a notable setup because it matches 2 of 39 tracked screener presets and graham_defensive preset's Backtest win rate is 51.8% over 90 days. Net: Partial signal stack, not a recommendation. ? Conviction Backtest
Sources
Conviction 2/39 · Backtest win rate 51.8%
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Currency-adjusted total returns for MTH including FX impact
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📈 Price History
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About

Meritage Homes Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, designs and builds single-family attached and detached homes in the United States. The company operates through two segments: Homebuilding and Financial Services. It acquires and develops land; and constructs, markets, and sells homes for entry-level and first move-up buyers in Arizona, California, Colorado, Utah, Texas, Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Tennessee. The company also provides title and escrow, mortgage, insurance, title insurance, and closing/settlement services to its homebuyers. Meritage Homes Corporation was founded in 1985 and is based in Scottsdale, Arizona.

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📈 Growth Pattern
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⭐ Superinvestors Holding MTH
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Manager Shares Value % of Fund Period
Steve Cohen Point72 Asset Management 251.3K $15.5M 0.02% Mar 2026

SEC Form 13F data. 45-day lag from quarter end.

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🎙 Management Tone Cautious ~ Volatile 4 quarters Full tone analysis in Intelligence →
📊 MIXED Q1 FY2026: Revenue $1.1B, EPS $0.82, community count up 19% YoY
Revenue & Profitability
Home closing revenue was $1.1 billion, down 17% year-over-year, with diluted EPS of $0.82, a 51% decline from $1.69 in Q1 2025. Gross margin fell 400 basis points to 17.5%. The company returned $162 million to shareholders via buybacks ($130 million) and dividends ($32 million), and ended the quarter with $767 million cash and net debt-to-cap of 17.4%.
Outlook
Management sees long-term demand supported by favorable demographics and an undersupply of affordable homes, but near-term conditions are challenging due to inflation, rising interest rates, and geopolitical events (Iran conflict). Consumer confidence remains fragile, though pent-up demand is expected to materialize when macroeconomic conditions stabilize. The company is cautiously optimistic about a potential margin floor forming as industry inventory levels decline.
Growth Drivers
Growth is driven by increasing community count (up 19% YoY to 345 at March 31, 2026, with a full-year target of 5%-10% growth). The company is shifting geographic mix toward lower-ASP East region markets. Faster cycle times and reduced spec inventory (14 specs per store, lowest since early 2022) support volume without pressuring margins further. New communities performed in line with expectations.
Balance Sheet & CapEx
Land spend was $326 million in Q1, down 30% year-over-year, with the company reiterating its full-year 2026 land acquisition and development spend forecast of up to $2 billion. Investments in back-office automation and AI are targeted to improve SG&A efficiency toward the long-term goal of 9.5% of revenue. The company is selectively adding off-balance-sheet land structures but retains a cautious approach.
Margins
Q1 2026 gross margin was 17.5%, down 400 bps year-over-year due to higher incentives, elevated lot costs (from 2022-2024 vintages), and lost leverage, partially offset by 5% year-over-year direct cost savings and faster cycle times. The company expects some margin relief starting at the tail end of 2027 from lower-cost land. Q2 2026 gross margin is guided to around 18%, with further improvement expected in the second half of 2026 as volume increases.
Key Risks
Key risks include persistent inflation, rising interest rates, and the geopolitical impact of the Iran conflict, which have hurt consumer confidence and increased incentives. The company's margin is pressured by higher-cost land vintages from 2022-2024, and there is potential for further cost inflation in lumber and oil. Weather events (e.g., winter storms) disrupted sales in Q1. The fragile consumer psychology could delay a demand recovery.
Generated by AI · Q1 2026 results · Not investment advice
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✓ 📞 Earnings Call Transcripts (5 quarters) submit a missing quarter
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📞 Earnings Call Transcripts (5)
Q2 2026 Q2 2026 2026-07-30
Q2 2026 saw a 14% revenue decline and 33% lower EPS year-over-year amid softer demand and affordability pressures, but operational discipline led to improved cycle times and a 9% increase in community count. Guidance for 2026 was reaffirmed, with a strategic shift toward first move-up buyers underway.
Q1 2026 Q1 2026 2026-04-23
Q1 2026 saw lower sales and revenue due to macro headwinds, but record community count and disciplined capital allocation supported strong backlog conversion and shareholder returns. Margins declined but are expected to stabilize, with cautious optimism for the remainder of 2026.
Q4 2025 Q4 2025 2026-01-29
Q4 2025 saw lower revenue and margins due to affordability challenges and higher incentives, but strong capital returns and cost controls supported results. 2026 guidance is flat, with focus on share buybacks, community growth, and margin recovery as market conditions stabilize.
Q3 2025 Q3 2025 2025-10-29
Q3 2025 saw lower revenue and margins amid soft demand and high incentives, but strong backlog conversion, community count growth, and disciplined capital returns. Guidance for Q4 anticipates stable closings and continued margin pressure, with long-term margin recovery tied to improved market conditions.
Q2 2025 Q2 2025 2025-07-24
Q2 2025 saw resilient sales and record community count growth despite market headwinds, with revenue and margins pressured by incentives and higher costs. Capital was reallocated from land to shareholder returns, and double-digit community growth is expected through 2026.
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📊 Analysis Methodology

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Financial Model
Projections are built from each company's audited annual financials (Income Statement, Balance Sheet, Cash Flow) over the last 5 fiscal years. Forward assumptions — revenue growth %, EBITDA margin, D&A (USD millions), interest expense, tax rate, and capex — are AI-generated using historical context and refreshed twice a year: after the December results season and after the September/Q4 results season.

DCF Valuation
Fair Value = Σ(FCFt / (1+WACC)t) + Terminal Value. Terminal Value uses the Gordon Growth Model: FCF5 × (1+g) / (WACC−g). Default WACC: 10% (US risk-free ~4.5%, equity risk premium ~5.5%). Default terminal growth: 3% (long-run US nominal GDP proxy).

CAGR Tracker
Expected 5-year CAGR = (DCF Fair Value / Current Price)1/5 − 1. Assumes fair value is reached in exactly 5 years — a mechanical estimate only.

Data Sources & Limitations
Financial statements sourced from public filings. Prices updated daily. Forward assumptions are AI-generated. All monetary values in USD millions. Non-US ADR companies may have currency conversion inaccuracies. Models are point-in-time and do not update intra-quarter or account for M&A, macro shocks, or extraordinary items.

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Investment Risk:
Investing in securities, including US equities and ETFs, involves inherent risks including the potential loss of principal. All investments are subject to market fluctuations, economic conditions, regulatory changes, and other factors that may affect their value. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This analysis is provided for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice under any circumstances.

No Investment Recommendation:
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Information Sources:
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