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Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd.
S&P 500
$6.5B
Market Cap
24.3
P/E
0.52
PEG
9.4%
ROCE
23.3%
ROE
7.03
D/E
15.9%
OPM
-45.3%
% from 52W High
14
α RS
🔍 NCLH is showing a high-conviction setup because it matches 7 of 39 tracked screener presets and rs_momentum preset's Backtest win rate is 53.8% over 90 days. Net: Partial signal stack, not a recommendation. ? Conviction Backtest
Sources
Conviction 7/39 · Backtest win rate 53.8%
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📈 Price History
Ratio Health
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About

Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a cruise company in North America, Europe, the Asia-Pacific, and internationally. It offers itineraries to destinations, such as Europe, Asia, Australia, New Zealand, South America, Africa, Canada, Bermuda, the Caribbean, and Alaska; and inter-island itinerary in Hawaii. The company also provides features, amenities, and activities, including various accommodations, dining venues, bars and lounges, spas, casino and retail shopping areas, and entertainment choices; shore excursions at each port of call, and air transportation and hotel packages for stays before or after a voyage. It offers its products and services under the Norwegian Cruise Line, Oceania Cruises, and Regent Seven Seas Cruises brands. The company was founded in 1966 and is based in Miami, Florida.

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🎙 Management Tone Cautious ~ Volatile 4 quarters Full tone analysis in Intelligence →
📊 MIXED NCLH Q1 2026: Adjusted EBITDA $533M, full-year yield decline 3-5%, $125M cost savings
Revenue & Profitability
First quarter 2026 net yields declined 1%, adjusted net cruise cost excluding fuel was $168 per capacity day (down 1%), and adjusted EBITDA was $533 million. Adjusted net income was $108 million, or adjusted EPS of $0.23. Full-year guidance was revised: net yields expected to decline 3% to 5%, adjusted EBITDA between $2.48 billion and $2.64 billion, and adjusted EPS between $1.45 and $1.79. Fuel expense is now expected to be approximately $800 million based on current spot prices.
Outlook
Management noted healthy industry fundamentals with record passenger volumes and encouraging indicators for both repeat and first-time cruise demand. However, recent geopolitical developments, particularly in the Middle East, have added pressure to European summer demand and close-end bookings. The company expects the macro environment to remain challenged for the balance of 2026, with some improvement anticipated in 2027 as internal issues are addressed.
Growth Drivers
Key growth levers include new ship deliveries: two ships in 2026 (including Norwegian Luna) and two in 2027, with capacity days increasing 7% in 2026. The opening of Great Tides Water Park at Great Stirrup Cay in late summer is expected to drive demand for Caribbean itineraries. The company is also focusing on returning to its core customer segments, such as premium families with kids and season travelers, as part of a marketing realignment. Luxury brands Regent and Oceania continue to perform well.
Balance Sheet & CapEx
Gross new build and growth CapEx is expected to decline by nearly $1 billion per year after 2027. The company has two ships on order for 2026 and two for 2027, then only one each in 2028 and 2029. This moderating capital spending is expected to materially improve free cash flow generation and support deleveraging. No significant debt maturities exist until 2030.
Margins
Adjusted net cruise cost excluding fuel is expected to be approximately flat for full-year 2026, marking the third straight year of sub-inflationary cost growth (1% or lower). Cumulative savings between shipboard and shoreside efforts are approaching $400 million, exceeding a prior $300 million target. The structural cost actions are expected to benefit margins in 2027. Management believes the prior 39%+ margin target remains achievable over time.
Key Risks
Key risks highlighted include geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which are pressuring European summer demand and increasing fuel costs. The company entered 2026 behind its targeted booking curve, and occupancy shortfalls are a concern. Internal execution risks include the time required to build and integrate a new revenue management and marketing team. Fuel expense is expected to be $800 million based on spot prices, with additional downside if rates increase further.
Generated by AI · Q1 2026 results · Not investment advice
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✓ 📞 Earnings Call Transcripts (5 quarters) submit a missing quarter
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📞 Earnings Call Transcripts (5)
Q2 2026 Q2 2026 2026-07-30
Q2 results exceeded expectations with strong cost controls and $225M in new annualized savings. Net Yields are under pressure due to demand challenges, especially in Europe, but sequential improvement is expected in 2027 as new marketing and revenue strategies take hold.
Q1 2026 Q1 2026 2026-05-04
Q1 results exceeded guidance on cost control, but full-year outlook was cut due to macro and internal challenges, especially in Europe. Structural cost actions and new marketing initiatives are underway, with recovery expected to take several quarters.
Q4 2025 Q4 2025 2026-03-02
Q4 and full-year 2025 results exceeded expectations on cost control and EBITDA, but 2026 guidance reflects flat net yields and ongoing pricing pressure due to execution missteps in deployment and commercial strategy. Leadership is focused on operational turnaround, cost discipline, and long-term growth.
Q3 2025 Q3 2025 2025-11-04
Record Q3 results with revenue and EBITDA at all-time highs, driven by strong family demand and strategic focus on short Caribbean sailings. Full-year guidance raised for adjusted EPS, with continued cost discipline, margin expansion, and robust booking trends across all brands.
Q2 2025 Q2 2025 2025-07-31
Record Q2 results exceeded guidance, driven by strong demand, pricing, and onboard spend. Full-year guidance and 2026 targets were reiterated, with margin expansion, cost control, and deleveraging on track. Major investments in fleet and private island experiences are expected to drive future growth.
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Financial Model
Projections are built from each company's audited annual financials (Income Statement, Balance Sheet, Cash Flow) over the last 5 fiscal years. Forward assumptions — revenue growth %, EBITDA margin, D&A (USD millions), interest expense, tax rate, and capex — are AI-generated using historical context and refreshed twice a year: after the December results season and after the September/Q4 results season.

DCF Valuation
Fair Value = Σ(FCFt / (1+WACC)t) + Terminal Value. Terminal Value uses the Gordon Growth Model: FCF5 × (1+g) / (WACC−g). Default WACC: 10% (US risk-free ~4.5%, equity risk premium ~5.5%). Default terminal growth: 3% (long-run US nominal GDP proxy).

CAGR Tracker
Expected 5-year CAGR = (DCF Fair Value / Current Price)1/5 − 1. Assumes fair value is reached in exactly 5 years — a mechanical estimate only.

Data Sources & Limitations
Financial statements sourced from public filings. Prices updated daily. Forward assumptions are AI-generated. All monetary values in USD millions. Non-US ADR companies may have currency conversion inaccuracies. Models are point-in-time and do not update intra-quarter or account for M&A, macro shocks, or extraordinary items.

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