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National Fuel Gas Company
🏹 Trader: 🎯 Near 52W High View all →
$7.5B
Market Cap
16.3
P/E
0.47
PEG
10.7%
ROCE
18.0%
ROE
0.82
D/E
35.7%
OPM
-15.0%
% from 52W High
47
α RS
🔍 NFG is showing a high-conviction setup because it matches 8 of 39 tracked screener presets, Sector RRG has Energy in the Leading quadrant with the trail still strengthening, and an ECS of 65.1 last quarter. Net: Broad signal stack, not a recommendation. ? Conviction RRG ECS
Sources
Conviction 8/39 · Energy in Leading quadrant · ECS 65.1
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🌏 Global Investor Returns
Currency-adjusted total returns for NFG including FX impact
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📈 Price History
Ratio Health
Excellent
Good
Average
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By Category
📊 Sector Averages
About

National Fuel Gas Company operates as a diversified energy company. It operates through Integrated Upstream and Gathering, Pipeline and Storage, and Utility segments. The Integrated Upstream and Gathering segment explores for, develops, and produces natural gas and oil. It also builds, owns, and operates gathering facilities in the Appalachian region, as well as provides gathering services to Seneca. The Pipeline and Storage segment provides interstate natural gas transportation services through an integrated gas pipeline system in Pennsylvania and New York; and storage services through its underground natural gas storage fields. This segment also transports and stores natural gas for National Fuel Gas Distribution Corporation, as well as for utilities, industrial companies, and power producers in New York State. The Utility segment sells natural gas to retail customers; and provides natural gas utility services to various customers in Buffalo, Niagara Falls, and Jamestown, New York, as well as in Erie and Sharon, Pennsylvania. National Fuel Gas Company was incorporated in 1902 and is headquartered in Williamsville, New York.

Key Ratios Snapshot
📈 Growth Pattern
📊 Quick Scorecard
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⭐ Superinvestors Holding NFG
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Manager Shares Value % of Fund Period
Jim Simons Renaissance Technologies LLC 367.2K $34.5M 0.05% Mar 2026

SEC Form 13F data. 45-day lag from quarter end.

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3-Statement Financial Model
Bear / Base / Bull projections · DCF fair value · Reverse-DCF
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🎙 Management Tone Confident Specific → Stable 4 quarters Full tone analysis in Intelligence →
📊 MIXED National Fuel Q2 2026 adj. EPS $2.71, up 13%, FCF $160M
Revenue & Profitability
National Fuel reported adjusted earnings per share of $2.71 in Q2 2026, a 13% increase year-over-year, driven by strong winter gas prices and hedging. The company generated approximately $160 million in free cash flow during the quarter. For fiscal 2026, management guided adjusted EPS in the range of $7.45-$7.75, representing a 10% increase at the midpoint. The upstream & gathering segment posted record quarterly EBITDA of more than $300 million.
Outlook
Management is bullish on long-term natural gas demand, citing near-record LNG exports (around 20 Bcf/d), data center and AI load growth, and the need for gas-fired generation to support electric grid reliability in the Northeast and PJM. They expect Henry Hub prices to settle in a $3-$5/MMBtu range. Producer discipline in Appalachia is limiting supply growth, while New York policies are increasingly recognizing natural gas as essential for reliability and affordability.
Growth Drivers
Key growth levers include multiple pipeline expansion projects: the Line N System Upgrade ($93 million, +94,000 decatherms/day by late 2028), Shippingport Lateral and Tioga Pathway (both in service November 2026), and additional Gulf Coast firm transport capacity (50 MMcf/d added in Q2, another 50 MMcf/d in future years). The pending acquisition of CenterPoint's Ohio LDC provides further regulated utility growth. Upstream production is expected to grow at a durable mid-single-digit rate over the next several years.
Balance Sheet & CapEx
Fiscal 2026 capital expenditure guidance remains unchanged at $560-$610 million for the upstream segment, trending toward the high end due to drilling efficiencies and emerging cost headwinds from higher diesel prices linked to the Iran conflict. Regulated subsidiary spending is ahead of schedule on modernization programs. The Line N System Upgrade has a $93 million estimated cost, with 70% related to modernization. The company plans to raise up to $1.5 billion across multiple tranches to finance the Ohio LDC acquisition and refinancing needs.
Margins
Margin trajectory is supported by a favorable cost structure: gathering O&M is expected to be $0.12 per Mcf (up $0.01 due to compressor maintenance accounting), offset by a $0.01 reduction in upstream LOE, with no net impact. The company's hedging portfolio and premium market access provide price certainty on about 75% of remaining fiscal year volumes. Emerging headwinds from higher diesel and oil prices flowing into drilling, completions, and logistics are noted but not quantified. No explicit overall margin guidance was provided.
Key Risks
Risks highlighted include weather-related operational disruptions (road closures during cold snap reduced Q2 production by 5 Bcf), underperformance of older-design wells on one pad affecting fiscal 2026 production, lower NYMEX price assumptions (now $3/MMBtu vs. prior $3.75), emerging cost headwinds from the Iran conflict (higher diesel prices), and potential curtailments if in-basin prices decline significantly (no curtailments assumed in guidance, spot exposure ~30 Bcf). Rate case outcomes and regulatory timelines also pose risks.
Generated by AI · Q2 2026 results · Not investment advice
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✓ 📞 Earnings Call Transcripts (5 quarters) submit a missing quarter
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📞 Earnings Call Transcripts (5)
Q3 2026 Q3 2026 2026-07-30
Q3 adjusted EPS was $1.54, down year-over-year due to lower upstream production, but regulated businesses saw margin growth. The Ohio utility acquisition is set to close in Q4, supporting a projected 7%-10% annual EPS growth through 2029 and $1B-$1.5B in free cash flow.
Q2 2026 Q2 2026 2026-04-30
Q2 adjusted EPS rose 13% year-over-year, driven by strong upstream/gathering results and robust winter pricing. FY2026 EPS guidance was raised, with production guidance slightly reduced due to weather and well performance. Major pipeline expansions and the Ohio LDC acquisition remain on track.
Q1 2026 Q1 2026 2026-01-29
Q1 FY2026 delivered adjusted EPS of $2.06 and 29% EBITDA growth year-over-year, with strong upstream, gathering, and regulated business performance. Guidance is reaffirmed, Ohio LDC acquisition is on track, and capital efficiency and hedging support robust outlook amid ongoing natural gas price volatility.
Q4 2025 Q4 2025 2025-11-06
Record adjusted EPS and production growth were driven by capital efficiency and expanded inventory, with strong guidance for 2026 and a major utility acquisition set to double the rate base. Free cash flow and hedging strategies support continued growth and shareholder returns.
Q3 2025 Q3 2025 2025-07-31
Record Q3 results driven by higher production, improved capital efficiency, and strong pricing. Fiscal 2025-2026 guidance raised, with 20% EPS growth projected and robust free cash flow. Pipeline expansions and favorable policy trends support long-term growth.
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📊 Analysis Methodology

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Financial Model
Projections are built from each company's audited annual financials (Income Statement, Balance Sheet, Cash Flow) over the last 5 fiscal years. Forward assumptions — revenue growth %, EBITDA margin, D&A (USD millions), interest expense, tax rate, and capex — are AI-generated using historical context and refreshed twice a year: after the December results season and after the September/Q4 results season.

DCF Valuation
Fair Value = Σ(FCFt / (1+WACC)t) + Terminal Value. Terminal Value uses the Gordon Growth Model: FCF5 × (1+g) / (WACC−g). Default WACC: 10% (US risk-free ~4.5%, equity risk premium ~5.5%). Default terminal growth: 3% (long-run US nominal GDP proxy).

CAGR Tracker
Expected 5-year CAGR = (DCF Fair Value / Current Price)1/5 − 1. Assumes fair value is reached in exactly 5 years — a mechanical estimate only.

Data Sources & Limitations
Financial statements sourced from public filings. Prices updated daily. Forward assumptions are AI-generated. All monetary values in USD millions. Non-US ADR companies may have currency conversion inaccuracies. Models are point-in-time and do not update intra-quarter or account for M&A, macro shocks, or extraordinary items.

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Investment Risk:
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Information Sources:
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