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Natera, Inc.
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$44.7B
Market Cap
P/E
PEG
-38.8%
ROCE
-14.3%
ROE
0.13
D/E
-13.4%
OPM
0.0%
% from 52W High
95
α RS
🔍 NTRA is showing a high-conviction setup because it matches 8 of 39 tracked screener presets, RS Rating is 95 (top decile vs market), and it's within 0% of its 52-week high. The main caution: fortress_balance's Backtest win rate is only 49.4%. Net: Mixed signal stack, not a recommendation. ? Conviction RS Rating 52W High Backtest
Sources
Conviction 8/39 · RS Rating 95 · 0% from 52W high · Backtest win rate 49.4%
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🌏 Global Investor Returns
Currency-adjusted total returns for NTRA including FX impact
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📈 Price History
Ratio Health
Excellent
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By Category
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About

Natera, Inc., a diagnostics company, engages in the development and commercialization of molecular testing services worldwide. It offers Signatera, a personalized ctDNA blood test for MRD assessment, early recurrence monitoring, and evaluation of treatment response in patients previously diagnosed with cancer; Latitude, a blood-based MRD test for colorectal cancer; Altera, a tissue based comprehensive genomic profiling test; and Empower, a hereditary cancer screening test. The company also provides Panorama, a non-invasive prenatal test; Horizon, a carrier screening test; Fetal Focus, a single-gene NIPT, or sgNIPT, that screens for 21 single-gene inherited conditions; and Vistara, a single-gene NIPT, which screens for 25 single-gene conditions. In addition, it offers Anora, which tests and analyzes miscarriage tissue from women who have experienced one or more pregnancy losses; Empower, a hereditary cancer screening test; Prospera, a test to assess active rejection in patients who have undergone solid organ transplantation; Renasight, a kidney gene panel test; and Constellation software, a cloud-based distribution model. Further, the company provides NateraCore, a platform to support the patient and provider experience; phlebotomy services; and EMR integration services. The company serves independent laboratories, national and regional reference laboratories, medical centers and physician practices for its screening tests, research laboratories, and pharmaceutical companies through its direct sales force and laboratory distribution partners, as well as Constellation licensees under its cloud-based distribution model. It has a partnership agreement with BGI Genomics Co., Ltd. to develop, manufacture, and commercialize NGS-based genetic testing assays for clinical and commercial use. The company has a collaboration with Diakonos Oncology Corp. to assess molecular response in patients with refractory melanoma. The company was formerly known as Gene Security Network, LLC and changed its name to Natera, Inc. in January 2012. Natera, Inc. was founded in 2003 and is headquartered in Austin, Texas.

Key Ratios Snapshot
📈 Growth Pattern
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⭐ Superinvestors Holding NTRA
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Manager Shares Value % of Fund Period
Stan Druckenmiller Duquesne Family Office 3.06M $612.7M 18.14% Mar 2026
Cathie Wood ARK Investment Management 684.3K $136.8M 1.06% Mar 2026
Steve Cohen Point72 Asset Management 444.2K $88.8M 0.11% Mar 2026
Jim Simons Renaissance Technologies LLC 197.5K $39.5M 0.06% Mar 2026

SEC Form 13F data. 45-day lag from quarter end.

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Good quarter Investor Presentation One-Pager? Q2 2026
Revenue
$752.8M
+37.7% YoY
Operating Income (Loss)
-$75.8M
+31.3% YoY improvement
Operating Margin
-10.1%
+10.1pp YoY
Net Income
-$67.0M
+33.6% YoY improvement
What Went Right
  • Total revenue grew 37.7% YoY to $752.8M, and FY2026 revenue guidance was raised by $100M at the midpoint to $2.85B–$2.91B.
  • Clinical MRD (Signatera) volumes reached 283,000 units, up ~56% YoY, with a record 34,000 sequential increase; FDA CDx approval, Japan PMDA approval, and NCCN Category 1 bladder cancer recommendation were key catalysts.
  • Gross margin improved to 64.5% from 63.4% YoY, and ex true-ups gross margin rose ~50bp sequentially; cash increased by ~$3.6M during the quarter.
What to Watch
  • Management expects Q3 Signatera sequential volume growth to slow versus Q2's 34,000, partly because Q1 volumes were artificially depressed by weather; it does not expect a new record in Q3.
  • COGS are being pressured by volume ramp in newly launched products (Fetal Focus, Latitude, Signatera Genome), which are not yet COGS-optimized; management expects COGS projects to return savings over the next 12–18 months.
  • Signatera ASP of ~$1,275 remains well below the ~$2,000 mature target; larger ASP gains depend on MolDX indication coverage, NCCN guidelines, and commercial payer adoption, which management keeps out of 2026 guidance.
Management Guidance
  • FY2026 revenue raised to $2.85B–$2.91B, implying ~31% revenue growth ex true-ups.
  • FY2026 gross margin expected at approximately 64%–66%; SG&A expected at $1.125B–$1.225B; R&D expected at $800M–$900M.
  • FY2026 cash flow expected to be positive; no specific Q3 revenue guidance provided, with Signatera ASP assumed stable at ~$1,275 through the balance of the year.
Investor Lens
The investment thesis is meaningfully stronger after this quarter. Record oncology volume growth, multiple regulatory wins, and a $100M guidance raise show the commercial and evidence moat is widening. Gross margin is improving despite new-product COGS drag, and management still sees durable ASP upside toward $2,000 from MolDX and guideline coverages. The main near-term caution is that Q3 Signatera sequential growth likely normalizes below the massive Q2 jump, but the multi-year readout pipeline supports continued upside.
From investor presentation · AI-generated analysis · Not investment advice
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📈 STRONG Strong beat: Q2 revenue +38%, Signatera +56%, guidance up $100M.
Revenue
Total revenue was $752.8M, up 37.7% YoY, driven by 22.4% total test volume growth and ASP improvements. Clinical MRD oncology units hit 283,000, up ~56% YoY, and Women's Health grew high single digits despite seasonal softness.
Profitability
Net loss narrowed to $67.0M from $100.9M, with diluted EPS improving to $(0.47) from $(0.74). Operating loss also narrowed to $75.8M from $110.4M in Q2 2025.
Margins
Gross margin rose to 64.5% from 63.4% YoY; ex true-ups, gross margin improved ~50bp sequentially to ~65%. Operating margin was -10.1% versus -20.2% a year ago, reflecting ASP gains and volume leverage partially offset by investments in new products and ECD.
Balance Sheet
Cash, equivalents, and restricted cash totaled ~$1.0915B, up ~$3.6M during the quarter. Total debt was $80.3M on the UBS line of credit.
Key Risks
Management cautioned that Q3 Signatera volumes may not set another record due to the Q1 weather distortion. New product COGS are currently higher than steady-state levels, and Signatera ASP improvement is expected to be gradual rather than immediate, with bigger gains likely in 2027 from MolDX and NCCN-driven coverage.
Outlook
For FY2026, Natera raised revenue guidance to $2.85B–$2.91B, maintained gross margin guidance at 64%–66%, and reiterated positive cash flow. The company kept OpEx guidance steady while continuing to invest in growth and early cancer detection.
Generated by AI · Q2 2026 results · Not investment advice
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✓ 📞 Earnings Call Transcripts (5 quarters) submit a missing quarter
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📞 Earnings Call Transcripts (5)
Q2 2026 Q2 2026 2026-08-06
Record test volumes and 38% revenue growth were driven by strong oncology and women's health performance, major regulatory wins for Signatera, and improved gross margins. Raised full-year guidance reflects confidence in continued volume and ASP growth.
Q1 2026 Q1 2026 2026-05-07
Q1 2026 revenue grew 39% year-over-year to $697M, with record unit volumes and gross margins just under 65%. Oncology and women's health drove growth, ASPs rose, and guidance for revenue and margins was raised. Japan CRC launch and expanded MRD coverage present major future opportunities.
Q4 2025 Q4 2025 2026-02-26
Q4 2025 saw record test volumes, 40% revenue growth, and gross margin expansion, with strong cash flow and clinical adoption across oncology, women's health, and organ health. 2026 guidance projects continued double-digit growth, margin improvement, and stable OpEx.
Q3 2025 Q3 2025 2025-11-06
Q3 2025 saw 35% revenue growth, record gross margins, and strong cash flow, driven by robust performance in oncology and women's health. Guidance for 2025 was raised across revenue, margins, and cash flow, with continued investment in R&D and clinical trials supporting future growth.
Q2 2025 Q2 2025 2025-08-07
Q2 2025 saw 32% revenue growth and record oncology test volumes, driving a guidance raise to $2.02–$2.1B and improved gross margins. New product launches, strong clinical data, and AI initiatives support continued expansion, with cash flow positive performance and robust investment in future growth.
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Financial Model
Projections are built from each company's audited annual financials (Income Statement, Balance Sheet, Cash Flow) over the last 5 fiscal years. Forward assumptions — revenue growth %, EBITDA margin, D&A (USD millions), interest expense, tax rate, and capex — are AI-generated using historical context and refreshed twice a year: after the December results season and after the September/Q4 results season.

DCF Valuation
Fair Value = Σ(FCFt / (1+WACC)t) + Terminal Value. Terminal Value uses the Gordon Growth Model: FCF5 × (1+g) / (WACC−g). Default WACC: 10% (US risk-free ~4.5%, equity risk premium ~5.5%). Default terminal growth: 3% (long-run US nominal GDP proxy).

CAGR Tracker
Expected 5-year CAGR = (DCF Fair Value / Current Price)1/5 − 1. Assumes fair value is reached in exactly 5 years — a mechanical estimate only.

Data Sources & Limitations
Financial statements sourced from public filings. Prices updated daily. Forward assumptions are AI-generated. All monetary values in USD millions. Non-US ADR companies may have currency conversion inaccuracies. Models are point-in-time and do not update intra-quarter or account for M&A, macro shocks, or extraordinary items.

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Investment Risk:
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Information Sources:
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