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Packaging Corporation of America
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S&P 500
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$22.8B
Market Cap
27.1
P/E
1.48
PEG
10.5%
ROCE
19.8%
ROE
0.94
D/E
13.9%
OPM
-0.5%
% from 52W High
76
α RS
🔍 PKG is showing a multi-screen setup because it matches 8 of 39 tracked screener presets, Sector RRG has Consumer Discretionary in the Leading quadrant with the trail still strengthening, RS Rating is 76, and it has maintained a 35-day Near 52-Week High momentum persistence. The main caution: the Value Buys preset's Backtest win rate is only 47%. Net: Mixed signal stack, not a recommendation. ? Conviction RRG RS Rating Momentum Streaks Backtest
Sources
Conviction 8/39 · Consumer Discretionary in Leading quadrant · RS Rating 76 · Near 52-Week High streak: 35d · Backtest win rate 47%
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🌏 Global Investor Returns
Currency-adjusted total returns for PKG including FX impact
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📈 Price History
Ratio Health
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By Category
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About

Packaging Corporation of America manufactures and sells containerboard and uncoated freesheet (UFS) paper products in North America. The company operates through Packaging and Paper segments. The Packaging segment offers various linerboard and corrugated packaging products, such as conventional shipping containers used to protect and transport manufactured goods; multi-color boxes and displays that help to merchandise the packaged product in retail locations; and honeycomb protective packaging products, as well as packaging for meat, fresh fruit and vegetables, processed food, beverages, and other industrial and consumer products. This segment sells its corrugated products through a direct sales and marketing organization. The Paper segment manufactures and sells commodity and specialty papers, as well as communication papers, including cut-size office papers, and printing and converting papers; and white papers. This segment sells papers through its sales and marketing organization. Packaging Corporation of America was founded in 1867 and is headquartered in Lake Forest, Illinois.

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📈 Growth Pattern
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Manager Shares Value % of Fund Period
Jim Simons Renaissance Technologies LLC 5.9K $1.3M 0.00% Mar 2026

SEC Form 13F data. 45-day lag from quarter end.

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Good quarter Investor Presentation One-Pager? Q2 2026
Revenue
$2.5B
+13.6% YoY
Adjusted Operating Income
$314.9M
+1.4% YoY
Adjusted Operating Margin
12.6%
-1.5pp YoY
Adjusted Net Income
$210M
-6.3% YoY
Adjusted Diluted EPS
$2.35
-5.2% YoY
What Went Right
  • Legacy corrugated shipments rose 4.1% to an all-time quarterly record; total shipments were up 24.3%.
  • Adjusted EPS of $2.35 beat guidance of $2.33, helped by a $0.14 contribution from the acquired Greif business, above expectations.
  • The first containerboard/box price increase began realization in June and the second increase started in August; new Ohio plant started up ahead of schedule.
What to Watch
  • Freight costs added $0.26 per share versus last year and recycled fiber costs (OCC/DLK) are up roughly 70%.
  • Utility power outages across the mill system curtailed about 10,000 tons of production in Q2.
  • Packaging price/mix was down $0.11 per share YoY and export volume was deliberately cut ~30,000 tons QoQ to rebuild internal inventory.
Management Guidance
  • Q3 2026 adjusted EPS guidance: $2.91 excluding special items.
  • Revenue guidance: not provided.
  • Operating income or margin guidance: not provided.
  • Full-year 2026 CapEx: $840M-$870M; DD&A: ~$710M; Q3 tax rate: ~26%.
  • Full-year 2026 outage expense estimate: $1.41 per share.
Investor Lens
The investment thesis is stronger after this call: record corrugated demand, successful realization of price increases, and faster-than-expected Greif operational improvements are driving earnings momentum. Management remains disciplined on costs, but elevated freight, rising recycled fiber costs, and grid instability are real headwinds. With Q3 guidance of $2.91 versus Q2 adjusted EPS of $2.35, the back half appears well positioned.
From investor presentation · AI-generated analysis · Not investment advice
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📈 STRONG Q2 adjusted EPS $2.35 beats guidance; record shipments and price hikes ahead.
Revenue
Net sales rose 13.6% to $2.5B from $2.2B in the prior year. Packaging segment sales were $2.3B, while Paper segment sales were $157M.
Profitability
Adjusted net income was $210M or $2.35 per share, down from $224M or $2.48 per share a year ago; reported net income was $192M or $2.15 per share. Adjusted EPS came in $0.02 above guidance of $2.33.
Margins
Packaging EBITDA margin was 21.1%, down from 22.6% a year ago. Paper EBITDA margin improved to 24.9% from 20.8%. Adjusted total operating margin was approximately 12.6%, down from 14.1%, pressured by freight and recycled fiber costs.
Balance Sheet
Cash from operations was $376M; after $206M of CapEx, free cash flow was $170M. Dividend payments were $111M, cash taxes were $78M, net interest payments were $54M, and no shares were repurchased during the quarter.
Key Risks
Freight costs were $0.26 per share higher YoY, and recycled fiber prices continue to rise. Utility power outages cut roughly 10,000 tons of production, and packaging price/mix was down $0.11 per share YoY. Export shipments were reduced by about 30,000 tons quarter-over-quarter to rebuild inventories.
Outlook
Q3 adjusted EPS guidance is $2.91, supported by one more shipping day, continued strong packaging demand, and the full realization of the first price increase plus the beginning of the second. Packaging maintenance costs will be lower, but paper outage costs will be higher.
Generated by AI · Q2 2026 results · Not investment advice
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✓ 📞 Earnings Call Transcripts (5 quarters) submit a missing quarter
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📞 Earnings Call Transcripts (5)
Q2 2026 Q2 2026 2026-07-23
Adjusted net income and EBITDA rose on higher sales, driven by strong demand and Greif integration, though legacy business earnings declined due to elevated costs. Market conditions remain tight, with price increases underway and further margin improvement expected as integration and capacity projects progress.
Q1 2026 Q1 2026 2026-04-23
Adjusted Q1 EPS rose to $2.40 on strong operational performance, higher prices, and improved mix, with Packaging and Paper segments both showing margin gains. Price increases will mainly benefit Q3, while Q2 faces higher input and freight costs.
Q4 2025 Q4 2025 2026-01-28
Fourth quarter and full-year 2025 results showed higher sales and EBITDA, with adjusted earnings up year-over-year. Integration of the Greif acquisition progressed, and demand improved in early 2026, supporting full-capacity operations. Guidance anticipates continued growth, with cost inflation and winter storm impacts noted.
Q3 2025 Q3 2025 2025-10-23
Q3 2025 saw higher adjusted EPS and EBITDA, driven by improved packaging prices/mix and the Greif acquisition. Cash flow hit a record, and integration of acquired mills is yielding operational gains. Outlook for Q4 is cautious due to higher outage costs and seasonally lower volumes.
Q2 2025 Q2 2025 2025-07-24
Q2 2025 saw higher net income and margins year-over-year, driven by price increases and cost controls, with strong packaging performance and steady demand despite global trade headwinds. The pending Greif acquisition is expected to provide strategic growth and significant capital avoidance benefits.
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Financial Model
Projections are built from each company's audited annual financials (Income Statement, Balance Sheet, Cash Flow) over the last 5 fiscal years. Forward assumptions — revenue growth %, EBITDA margin, D&A (USD millions), interest expense, tax rate, and capex — are AI-generated using historical context and refreshed twice a year: after the December results season and after the September/Q4 results season.

DCF Valuation
Fair Value = Σ(FCFt / (1+WACC)t) + Terminal Value. Terminal Value uses the Gordon Growth Model: FCF5 × (1+g) / (WACC−g). Default WACC: 10% (US risk-free ~4.5%, equity risk premium ~5.5%). Default terminal growth: 3% (long-run US nominal GDP proxy).

CAGR Tracker
Expected 5-year CAGR = (DCF Fair Value / Current Price)1/5 − 1. Assumes fair value is reached in exactly 5 years — a mechanical estimate only.

Data Sources & Limitations
Financial statements sourced from public filings. Prices updated daily. Forward assumptions are AI-generated. All monetary values in USD millions. Non-US ADR companies may have currency conversion inaccuracies. Models are point-in-time and do not update intra-quarter or account for M&A, macro shocks, or extraordinary items.

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