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PROG Holdings, Inc.
$1.5B
Market Cap
8.2
P/E
1.21
PEG
24.2%
ROCE
17.8%
ROE
0.81
D/E
15.9%
OPM
-22.0%
% from 52W High
55
α RS
🔍 PRG is showing a high-conviction setup because it matches 4 of 39 tracked screener presets, Sector RRG has Industrials in the Improving quadrant with the trail still strengthening, and rs_momentum preset's Backtest win rate is 53.6% over 90 days. Net: Broad signal stack, not a recommendation. ? Conviction RRG Backtest
Sources
Conviction 4/39 · Industrials in Improving quadrant · Backtest win rate 53.6%
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🌏 Global Investor Returns
Currency-adjusted total returns for PRG including FX impact
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📈 Price History
Ratio Health
Excellent
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Average
Poor
By Category
📊 Sector Averages
About

PROG Holdings, Inc., a financial technology holding company, provides payment options to consumers in the United States. The company operates through two segments: Progressive Leasing and Four. It owns Progressive Leasing, an in-store, app-based, and e-commerce point-of-sale lease-to-own solutions provider; and Four, which enables consumers of all credit backgrounds to pay for purchases over time through short-term, interest-free instalment buy-now-pay-later BNPL plans. The company offers Purchasing Power, that provides these underserved customers with alternatives to traditional financing options. The company was formerly known as Aaron's Holdings Company, Inc. and changed its name to PROG Holdings, Inc. in December 2020. PROG Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1955 and is based in Draper, Utah.

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📈 Growth Pattern
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📊 MIXED PROG Holdings Q1 2026: GMV up 54%, adjusted EBITDA $90.3M, outlook raised
Revenue & Profitability
Q1 2026 consolidated revenue was $742.7 million, up 11.1% year-over-year. Adjusted EBITDA was $90.3 million, and non-GAAP diluted EPS was $1.24, both exceeding the high end of the company's outlook. Gross margin at Progressive Leasing improved 210 bps to 31.5%. Full-year 2026 guidance was raised to revenue of $3.0-$3.1 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $343-$370 million, and non-GAAP EPS of $4.40-$4.80.
Outlook
Management noted that the consumer remains resilient but faces challenges from elevated gas prices and macroeconomic uncertainty. The company expects the operating environment to maintain current pressures on its customer base, with no material change in decisioning posture and no meaningful increase in unemployment. The revised outlook assumes these conditions persist.
Growth Drivers
Key growth levers include improving GMV trends at Progressive Leasing (March up low single digits year-over-year), triple-digit GMV growth at Four (134% in Q1), and double-digit growth at Purchasing Power (10.3%). E-commerce now represents 25.7% of Progressive Leasing GMV, and PROG Marketplace grew 169%. Cross-product engagement, particularly between Progressive Leasing and Four, is also a key growth driver.
Balance Sheet & CapEx
Not discussed in this earnings call.
Margins
Progressive Leasing achieved adjusted EBITDA margin of 12.9% (within the 11%-13% target range) up 260 bps year-over-year, supported by improved portfolio yield and lower 90-day purchase option utilization. Four Technologies delivered a 37% adjusted EBITDA margin in Q1 (seasonally high), with full-year margin expected to moderate. Purchasing Power was near breakeven in Q1, with earnings expected to be back-half weighted.
Key Risks
Risks flagged include elevated gas prices pressuring the consumer, macroeconomic uncertainty, and potential changes in customer payment behavior. The company also cited the need to manage portfolio health and decisioning posture. Analysts asked about the impact of lower 90-day purchase option utilization and the sustainability of GMV trends at Progressive Leasing.
Generated by AI · Q1 2026 results · Not investment advice
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✓ 📞 Earnings Call Transcripts (5 quarters) submit a missing quarter
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📞 Earnings Call Transcripts (5)
Q2 2026 Q2 2026 2026-07-29
Revenue and earnings exceeded guidance, with all segments contributing to strong year-over-year growth. Portfolio risk was managed amid inflation, and the outlook for 2026 was raised, reflecting confidence in continued momentum and disciplined execution.
Q1 2026 Q1 2026 2026-04-29
Q1 results exceeded expectations with 54% GMV growth, strong performance across all segments, and improved profitability. Revised 2026 outlook raises revenue and earnings guidance, with continued focus on deleveraging and ecosystem integration.
Q4 2025 Q4 2025 2026-02-18
2025 results met or exceeded guidance despite retail headwinds, with strong growth in Four and MoneyApp, margin expansion, and strategic moves including the sale of Vive and acquisition of Purchasing Power. 2026 guidance anticipates continued revenue and EBITDA growth, with a focus on ecosystem synergies.
Q3 2025 Q3 2025 2025-10-22
Q3 results exceeded expectations with strong portfolio performance and triple-digit BNPL growth, despite macro headwinds and a slight revenue decline. The sale of the Vive portfolio for $150 million enhances capital flexibility, and new retail partnerships set up future GMV growth.
Q2 2025 Q2 2025 2025-07-23
Q2 2025 revenue and earnings exceeded guidance, led by strong performance in Four Technologies and disciplined cost control. Progressive Leasing faced headwinds from the Big Lots bankruptcy and tighter approval rates, but portfolio health remains strong. 2025 guidance was raised for revenue and earnings.
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Financial Model
Projections are built from each company's audited annual financials (Income Statement, Balance Sheet, Cash Flow) over the last 5 fiscal years. Forward assumptions — revenue growth %, EBITDA margin, D&A (USD millions), interest expense, tax rate, and capex — are AI-generated using historical context and refreshed twice a year: after the December results season and after the September/Q4 results season.

DCF Valuation
Fair Value = Σ(FCFt / (1+WACC)t) + Terminal Value. Terminal Value uses the Gordon Growth Model: FCF5 × (1+g) / (WACC−g). Default WACC: 10% (US risk-free ~4.5%, equity risk premium ~5.5%). Default terminal growth: 3% (long-run US nominal GDP proxy).

CAGR Tracker
Expected 5-year CAGR = (DCF Fair Value / Current Price)1/5 − 1. Assumes fair value is reached in exactly 5 years — a mechanical estimate only.

Data Sources & Limitations
Financial statements sourced from public filings. Prices updated daily. Forward assumptions are AI-generated. All monetary values in USD millions. Non-US ADR companies may have currency conversion inaccuracies. Models are point-in-time and do not update intra-quarter or account for M&A, macro shocks, or extraordinary items.

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Investment Risk:
Investing in securities, including US equities and ETFs, involves inherent risks including the potential loss of principal. All investments are subject to market fluctuations, economic conditions, regulatory changes, and other factors that may affect their value. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This analysis is provided for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice under any circumstances.

No Investment Recommendation:
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Conflict of Interest Disclosure:
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Information Sources:
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