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Turning Point Brands, Inc.
$1.3B
Market Cap
34.9
P/E
0.94
PEG
18.8%
ROCE
24.2%
ROE
0.83
D/E
21.4%
OPM
-49.9%
% from 52W High
19
α RS
🔍 TPB is showing a high-conviction setup because it matches 15 of 39 tracked screener presets, an ECS of 62.7 last quarter, and canslim_filter preset's Backtest win rate is 63.5% over 90 days. Net: Broad signal stack, not a recommendation. ? Conviction ECS Backtest
Sources
Conviction 15/39 · ECS 62.7 · Backtest win rate 63.5%
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🌏 Global Investor Returns
Currency-adjusted total returns for TPB including FX impact
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📈 Price History
Ratio Health
Excellent
Good
Average
Poor
By Category
📊 Sector Averages
About

Turning Point Brands, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, markets, and distributes branded consumer products in the United States and Canada. The company operates through two segments, Zig-Zag Products and Stoker’s Products. Its Zig-Zag Products segment markets and distributes rolling papers, tubes, finished cigars, make-your-own cigar wraps, and related products, as well as lighters and other accessories under the Zig-Zag brand. The Stoker’s Products segment manufactures and markets moist snuff tobacco and loose-leaf chewing tobacco products under the Stoker’s, FRE, Beech-Nut, Durango, Trophy, and Wind River brands. In addition, the company markets and distributes cannabis accessories and tobacco products. It sells its products to wholesale distributors and retail merchants in the independent and chain convenience stores, tobacco outlets, food stores, mass merchandising, drug store, and non-traditional retail channels. The company was formerly known as North Atlantic Holding Company, Inc. and changed its name to Turning Point Brands, Inc. in November 2015. Turning Point Brands, Inc. was founded in 1988 and is headquartered in Louisville, Kentucky.

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📈 Growth Pattern
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📊 MIXED Q1 2026: Modern Oral net sales up 133% to $52M; consolidated net sales up 17% to $124.3M.
Revenue & Profitability
Consolidated net sales rose 17% to $124.3M, driven by Modern Oral. Gross profit was $68.3M, up 14.6%, with gross margin of 55% (down 100 bps). Adjusted EBITDA was $25.9M (20.8% margin). Free cash flow was -$27.4M due to investments in trade marketing, working capital, and manufacturing CapEx. Cash balance at quarter-end was $192.4M.
Outlook
Management believes the nicotine pouch category is in early stages and will become the dominant revenue/profit driver. They see a >$50B generational shift in nicotine consumption. The category is expected to consolidate around a limited number of scaled brands. TPB targets double-digit market share by the end of the decade, currently at mid-single-digit share.
Growth Drivers
The primary growth driver is Modern Oral (FRE and ALP), which grew net sales 133% YoY to $52M. Growth is fueled by D2C platforms, early expansion into national convenience chains, and ALP's move into bricks-and-mortar. TPB expects chain store count to increase 70% by end of 2026. The TKO partnership is expected to accelerate brand awareness and adult consumer engagement.
Balance Sheet & CapEx
Budgeted 2026 CapEx is $4M-$5M (excluding Modern Oral projects), with an additional $3M-$5M for PMTAs. Sales and marketing investment is planned at $80M-$105M, including sales force expansion, chain account support, and brand-building. The Louisville manufacturing facility is being commissioned to localize production. Free cash flow is expected to be approximately breakeven for the remainder of 2026.
Margins
Consolidated gross margin was 55%, down 100 bps YoY due to tariff impacts and investment mix. Stoker's gross margin fell 350 bps to 54% largely due to tariffs. Zig-Zag gross margin improved 300 bps to 57.1%. Management expects Modern Oral margins to approach 70% by the end of the decade as domestic manufacturing scales. SG&A includes increased sales force and marketing spend, with costs expected to become a smaller percentage of sales as the consumer base grows.
Key Risks
Risks include the impact of tariffs on Stoker's margins (gross margin down 350 bps in Q1), the ongoing PMTA process with uncertain timing, and front-loaded investments in sales and marketing that may pressure near-term EBITDA. Management noted that fuel prices are transient but consumers may seek value in heritage businesses. The wide EBITDA guidance range ($70M-$90M) reflects uncertainty in investment pacing.
Generated by AI · Q1 2026 results · Not investment advice
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✓ 📞 Earnings Call Transcripts (5 quarters) submit a missing quarter
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📞 Earnings Call Transcripts (5)
Q2 2026 Q2 2026 2026-08-04
Modern Oral drove strong top-line growth, with sales up 128% year-over-year and now 48% of total revenue. Full-year guidance for Modern Oral was raised, while EBITDA remains flat due to increased investment. Regulatory progress and international expansion continue to support long-term growth.
Q1 2026 Q1 2026 2026-05-07
Modern Oral drove 17% sales growth and now represents 42% of revenue, with net sales up 133% year-over-year. Raised 2026 guidance for Modern Oral and EBITDA, reflecting strong chain wins and brand investments. Significant marketing and infrastructure spend expected to support long-term growth.
Q4 2025 Q4 2025 2026-03-02
Q4 revenue rose 29% to $121M, led by Modern Oral's 266% net sales growth and strong Stoker's performance. 2026 guidance targets $220–$240M Modern Oral gross revenue, with continued investment in sales, marketing, and U.S. manufacturing.
Q3 2025 Q3 2025 2025-11-05
Q3 revenue grew 31% year-over-year to $119 million, driven by a 628% surge in modern oral sales. Adjusted EBITDA rose 17%, and full-year guidance for both EBITDA and nicotine pouch sales was raised. Strong investments and new product launches position the business for continued growth.
Q2 2025 Q2 2025 2025-08-06
Q2 revenue grew 25% to $116.6 million, driven by an 8x surge in Modern Oral sales and strong Stoker's performance. Adjusted EBITDA rose 15%, and full-year guidance for both EBITDA and nicotine pouch sales was raised. Gross margin improved, despite ongoing tariff and category headwinds.
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Financial Model
Projections are built from each company's audited annual financials (Income Statement, Balance Sheet, Cash Flow) over the last 5 fiscal years. Forward assumptions — revenue growth %, EBITDA margin, D&A (USD millions), interest expense, tax rate, and capex — are AI-generated using historical context and refreshed twice a year: after the December results season and after the September/Q4 results season.

DCF Valuation
Fair Value = Σ(FCFt / (1+WACC)t) + Terminal Value. Terminal Value uses the Gordon Growth Model: FCF5 × (1+g) / (WACC−g). Default WACC: 10% (US risk-free ~4.5%, equity risk premium ~5.5%). Default terminal growth: 3% (long-run US nominal GDP proxy).

CAGR Tracker
Expected 5-year CAGR = (DCF Fair Value / Current Price)1/5 − 1. Assumes fair value is reached in exactly 5 years — a mechanical estimate only.

Data Sources & Limitations
Financial statements sourced from public filings. Prices updated daily. Forward assumptions are AI-generated. All monetary values in USD millions. Non-US ADR companies may have currency conversion inaccuracies. Models are point-in-time and do not update intra-quarter or account for M&A, macro shocks, or extraordinary items.

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