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Ternium S.A.
NYSE: TX Materials Metals 🔎 Screen
🏹 Trader: 🚀 Stage 2 + Near High 📈 Stage 2 🎯 Near 52W High | BRS 85 Ready View all →
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$11.3B
Market Cap
17.4
P/E
0.03
PEG
2.2%
ROCE
1.9%
ROE
0.16
D/E
4.5%
OPM
-0.9%
% from 52W High
87
α RS
🔍 TX is showing a high-conviction setup because it matches 7 of 39 tracked screener presets, RS Rating is 87, and an ECS of 57.4 last quarter. Net: Broad signal stack, not a recommendation. ? Conviction RS Rating ECS
Sources
Conviction 7/39 · RS Rating 87 · ECS 57.4
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🌏 Global Investor Returns
Currency-adjusted total returns for TX including FX impact
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📈 Price History
Ratio Health
Excellent
Good
Average
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By Category
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About

Ternium S.A., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and distributes steel products in Mexico, Southern Region, Brazil, and internationally. The company operates through two segments, Steel and Mining. The Steel segment offers slabs, heavy plates, hot and cold rolled products, coated products, stamped steel parts for the automotive industry, roll-formed and tubular products, billets, bars, and other products, including sales of energy. Its Mining segment sells iron ore and pellets. It also provides medical and social; scrap; and engineering and other services. In addition, the company engages in the exploration, exploitation, and pelletizing of iron ore. Ternium S.A. was founded in 1961 and is based in Luxembourg, Luxembourg. Ternium S.A. is a subsidiary of Techint Holdings S.à r.l.

Key Ratios Snapshot
📈 Growth Pattern
📊 Quick Scorecard
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⭐ Superinvestors Holding TX
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Manager Shares Value % of Fund Period
Jim Simons Renaissance Technologies LLC 186.7K $7.5M 0.01% Mar 2026
Steve Cohen Point72 Asset Management 68.5K $2.7M 0.00% Mar 2026

SEC Form 13F data. 45-day lag from quarter end.

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3-Statement Financial Model
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📊 MIXED Q1 2026 adjusted EBITDA up 21% sequentially; net income $372M; net cash $327M.
Revenue & Profitability
Adjusted EBITDA increased 21% sequentially in Q1 2026. Net income reached $372 million, which included a $122 million deferred tax gain and a $48 million loss from a litigation provision. Net cash position at quarter-end was $327 million. Working capital increased due to higher trade receivables in Mexico.
Outlook
Management expects Mexican steel demand to recover due to supportive policies, destocking normalization, and early infrastructure projects. In Brazil, steel imports surged 30% ahead of anti-dumping measures, but inventories are expected to normalize by H2 2026. Argentina's demand is recovering unevenly, with mining, energy, and agriculture strong, while construction and consumer goods remain soft.
Growth Drivers
Key growth levers include the ramp-up of the Pesquería complex in Mexico, which will increase vertical integration and reduce slab imports. The company also sees growth from infrastructure projects under Plan Mexico and from trade defenses that improve market share in Brazil and Mexico. In Argentina, growth is supported by mining, energy, and agriculture sectors.
Balance Sheet & CapEx
CapEx in 2025 was $2.5 billion; 2026 CapEx is expected to be much lower, and 2027 CapEx is forecast around $1.2 billion to $1 billion. Capital spending is primarily focused on completing the slab-making facility at Pesquería. Additionally, the company spent $350 million to acquire Usiminas shares from Nippon Steel in Q1 2026.
Margins
Adjusted EBITDA margin improved sequentially in Q1 2026 and is expected to continue increasing, supported by higher revenue per ton (especially in Mexico and Brazil). This will be partially offset by higher cost per ton across main markets due to increased raw material and logistics costs. Operational efficiency and cost discipline are ongoing initiatives.
Key Risks
Risks flagged include uncertainty around USMCA and Section 232 trade negotiations, which could affect steel demand and exports. Import competition, particularly from Asia and Southeast Asia, remains a headwind. Management also cited the potential for a recession if the Middle East conflict is not resolved quickly. Cost increases from logistics and raw materials are monitored.
Generated by AI · Q1 2026 results · Not investment advice
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✓ 📞 Earnings Call Transcripts (5 quarters) submit a missing quarter
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📞 Earnings Call Transcripts (5)
Q2 2026 Q2 2026 2026-08-05
Q2 2026 saw a 50% sequential rise in adjusted EBITDA and strong net income, with margins expanding and shipments up, especially in Mexico. CapEx is set to decline after major investments, and dividend increases are possible as results improve.
Q1 2026 Q1 2026 2026-05-06
Adjusted EBITDA rose 21% sequentially in Q1 2026, with net income at $372 million. Mexican demand is recovering, Brazil faces high imports, and Argentina's recovery is uneven. CapEx will decline as major projects complete, supporting higher free cash flow and stable dividends.
Q4 2025 Q4 2025 2026-02-18
Resilient 2025 results were achieved through $250 million in cost savings and operational efficiency, despite market and safety challenges. Major expansion projects in Mexico advanced, supported by a $1.25 billion green loan, while CapEx is set to decline and margins are expected to recover in 2026.
Q3 2025 Q3 2025 2025-10-29
Q3 2025 saw higher EBITDA from cost reductions, but a net loss due to a large non-cash write-down at Usiminas. CapEx remains high for expansion, with a stable dividend and cautious outlook amid trade policy uncertainty and regional demand shifts.
Q2 2025 Q2 2025 2025-07-30
Adjusted EBITDA rose 25% in Q2 2025, driven by higher steel prices in Mexico and cost efficiencies, with net income at $259 million. CAPEX peaked at $800 million, and further EBITDA and margin improvements are expected as cost-saving initiatives continue.
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📊 Analysis Methodology

This comprehensive investment analysis was conducted using The Finmagine™ Stock Analysis & Ranking Methodology, a proprietary framework that systematically evaluates stocks across five critical dimensions: Financial Health, Growth Prospects, Competitive Positioning, Management Quality, and Valuation.

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Financial Model
Projections are built from each company's audited annual financials (Income Statement, Balance Sheet, Cash Flow) over the last 5 fiscal years. Forward assumptions — revenue growth %, EBITDA margin, D&A (USD millions), interest expense, tax rate, and capex — are AI-generated using historical context and refreshed twice a year: after the December results season and after the September/Q4 results season.

DCF Valuation
Fair Value = Σ(FCFt / (1+WACC)t) + Terminal Value. Terminal Value uses the Gordon Growth Model: FCF5 × (1+g) / (WACC−g). Default WACC: 10% (US risk-free ~4.5%, equity risk premium ~5.5%). Default terminal growth: 3% (long-run US nominal GDP proxy).

CAGR Tracker
Expected 5-year CAGR = (DCF Fair Value / Current Price)1/5 − 1. Assumes fair value is reached in exactly 5 years — a mechanical estimate only.

Data Sources & Limitations
Financial statements sourced from public filings. Prices updated daily. Forward assumptions are AI-generated. All monetary values in USD millions. Non-US ADR companies may have currency conversion inaccuracies. Models are point-in-time and do not update intra-quarter or account for M&A, macro shocks, or extraordinary items.

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Investment Risk:
Investing in securities, including US equities and ETFs, involves inherent risks including the potential loss of principal. All investments are subject to market fluctuations, economic conditions, regulatory changes, and other factors that may affect their value. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This analysis is provided for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice under any circumstances.

No Investment Recommendation:
This analysis does not constitute, nor should it be interpreted as, an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any securities or financial products. Investors are strongly advised to conduct their own independent research and due diligence and to consult with a licensed financial advisor or an SEC-registered investment adviser before making any investment decisions, taking into account their individual financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives.

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Conflict of Interest Disclosure:
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Information Sources:
The analysis is based on publicly available information including SEC filings (10-K, 10-Q), annual reports, management commentary, and publicly available financial data. Information is believed to be accurate as of the date of publication but may be subject to change without notice. Readers are encouraged to independently verify all information before acting upon it.

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