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United Airlines Holdings, Inc.
S&P 500
🏹 Trader: 💎 VCP Breakout View all →
$34.6B
Market Cap
11.0
P/E
0.94
PEG
12.0%
ROCE
24.0%
ROE
2.03
D/E
8.6%
OPM
-21.8%
% from 52W High
42
α RS
🔍 UAL is showing a high-conviction setup because it matches 5 of 39 tracked screener presets, Sector RRG has Industrials in the Improving quadrant with the trail still strengthening, and rs_momentum preset's Backtest win rate is 53.8% over 90 days. Net: Broad signal stack, not a recommendation. ? Conviction RRG Backtest
Sources
Conviction 5/39 · Industrials in Improving quadrant · Backtest win rate 53.8%
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🌏 Global Investor Returns
Currency-adjusted total returns for UAL including FX impact
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📈 Price History
Ratio Health
Excellent
Good
Average
Poor
By Category
📊 Sector Averages
About

United Airlines Holdings, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides air transportation services in the United States, Canada, Atlantic, the Pacific, and Latin America. It transports people and cargo through its mainline and regional fleets. The company also offers ground handling, flight academy, frequent flyer award non-travel redemptions, and maintenance services for third parties. In addition, it provides freight and mail transportation services to commercial businesses, freight forwarders, logistics firms, and national postal services, as well as loyalty programs. The company distributes its products through direct channels, such as the Company's website and the Company's mobile app; and traditional travel agencies, online travel agencies, and other intermediaries. The company was formerly known as United Continental Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to United Airlines Holdings, Inc. in June 2019. United Airlines Holdings, Inc. was incorporated in 1968 and is based in Chicago, Illinois.

Key Ratios Snapshot
📈 Growth Pattern
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⭐ Superinvestors Holding UAL
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Manager Shares Value % of Fund Period
Steve Cohen Point72 Asset Management 1.63M $150.4M 0.19% Mar 2026
Stan Druckenmiller Duquesne Family Office 262.5K $24.2M 0.72% Mar 2026

SEC Form 13F data. 45-day lag from quarter end.

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3-Statement Financial Model
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Good quarter Investor Presentation One-Pager? Q2 2026
Revenue
$17.7B
+16% YoY
Adjusted Pre-Tax Earnings
$843M
N/A
Adjusted Pre-Tax Margin
4.8%
N/A
Adjusted Diluted EPS
$1.99
Within guidance of $1.00-$2.00
What Went Right
  • Adjusted EPS of $1.99 hit the high end of guidance despite a $2.3B year-over-year fuel headwind.
  • Revenue grew 16% to $17.7B, with PRASM up 12.1%, domestic passenger revenue up 20.3%, and cargo revenue up 22.6%.
  • Close-in contracted business revenue surged 27% and premium revenue rose 16.4%, while Starlink now covers 450 aircraft with satisfaction scores more than double non-Starlink aircraft.
What to Watch
  • Fuel remains the biggest swing factor: full-year fuel cost is now nearly $6B higher than the start-of-year outlook.
  • Q3 fuel recovery is only expected at 80%-90%, so residual near-term margin pressure remains before full recovery in Q4.
  • CASM-ex rose 6.1% in Q2 due to capacity cuts and labor deals; Q4 domestic schedules are being adjusted downward and FAA capacity caps in Chicago, New York and San Francisco add uncertainty.
Management Guidance
  • Q3 2026 adjusted EPS guided to $2.50-$3.50, based on an all-in fuel price of approximately $3.69.
  • Full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance tightened/raised to $9.00-$11.00.
  • Q3 and Q4 RASM are expected to grow faster than Q2's 12%; Q4 yields are currently tracking up 19% year-over-year.
  • If fuel prices return to earlier levels, management expects to be above the high end of both Q3 and full-year guidance ranges.
Investor Lens
The thesis is stronger after this call. United showed pricing power and fuel-recovery capability by hitting the high end of EPS guidance despite a $2.3B fuel headwind, while reaffirming double-digit 2027 pre-tax margins. The key risk remains oil, but management has multiple levers—capacity cuts, fare increases, and a $3.7B low-cost debt raise—to manage through it. Structural cost harmonization and rising brand loyalty support the durability of higher fares, though investors should watch Q4 capacity decisions closely.
From investor presentation · AI-generated analysis · Not investment advice
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📈 STRONG Strong quarter: adjusted EPS $1.99 at high-end despite $2.3B fuel hit.
Revenue
Q2 total operating revenue rose 16% to $17.7B, with PRASM up 12.1% and load factors slightly higher. Domestic passenger revenue was up 20.3%, Pacific PRASM led at 14%, Atlantic PRASM was up 12.1%, and Latin PRASM was up 10.7%; cargo revenue rose 22.6%.
Profitability
Adjusted diluted EPS was $1.99 at the high end of the $1.00-$2.00 guidance; GAAP diluted EPS was $2.46. Adjusted pre-tax earnings were $843M with an adjusted pre-tax margin of 4.8%, despite the $2.3B year-over-year fuel expense increase.
Margins
Adjusted pre-tax margin was 4.8% in Q2. CASM-ex rose 6.1% year-over-year, driven by labor agreements and intentional capacity reductions. Management recovered about 50% of the fuel increase in Q2, expects 80%-90% recovery in Q3 and full recovery by Q4.
Balance Sheet
United ended Q2 with $19.6B of available liquidity. It raised $3.7B of new debt at a fixed-rate equivalent in the low 5% range and prepaid approximately $1B of higher-cost legacy and PSP debt. The company remains focused on achieving investment-grade ratings, with net debt expected to trend below 2x.
Key Risks
The most significant risk is oil price volatility, with full-year fuel now nearly $6B higher than originally planned and Q3 fuel recovery only 80%-90%. Q4 schedule uncertainty remains due to FAA capacity caps in Chicago, New York, and San Francisco, and CASM-ex pressure will persist through 2026 because of capacity reductions and labor costs.
Outlook
For Q3, United guides adjusted EPS to $2.50-$3.50 on an all-in fuel price of roughly $3.69, and for full-year 2026 to $9.00-$11.00. Management expects Q3 and Q4 RASM growth to exceed Q2's 12%, and sees potential to beat guidance if fuel prices revert to prior levels.
Generated by AI · Q2 2026 results · Not investment advice
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✓ 📞 Earnings Call Transcripts (5 quarters) submit a missing quarter
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📞 Earnings Call Transcripts (5)
Q2 2026 Q2 2026 2026-07-16
Second quarter revenue rose 16% to $17.7B, with strong demand, record operational performance, and robust premium and loyalty growth. Despite fuel headwinds, EPS reached $1.99 and guidance for 2026 EPS tightened to $9–$11. Double-digit margins are targeted for 2027.
Q1 2026 Q1 2026 2026-04-22
Record Q1 revenue and EPS growth were achieved despite higher fuel costs, driven by strong demand, premium product investments, and proactive capacity management. Guidance remains robust, targeting double-digit margins and full fuel cost recovery by year-end.
Q4 2025 Q4 2025 2026-01-21
Record Q4 revenue and resilient full-year EPS growth were achieved despite major headwinds, driven by premium and loyalty segments, strong cost discipline, and operational excellence. 2026 guidance points to double-digit EPS growth, margin expansion, and continued investment in premium products and technology.
Q3 2025 Q3 2025 2025-10-16
Q3 2025 saw strong revenue and margin performance, driven by premium and loyalty segments, disciplined cost management, and technology investments. Full-year EPS is expected at the high end of guidance, with double-digit margin targets and continued operational and financial resilience.
Q2 2025 Q2 2025 2025-07-17
Q2 2025 delivered record revenue and EPS above expectations, driven by operational resilience and a positive inflection in demand. Premium and loyalty revenues grew, Newark rebounded, and guidance for the second half is optimistic amid industry supply cuts and improved demand.
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Financial Model
Projections are built from each company's audited annual financials (Income Statement, Balance Sheet, Cash Flow) over the last 5 fiscal years. Forward assumptions — revenue growth %, EBITDA margin, D&A (USD millions), interest expense, tax rate, and capex — are AI-generated using historical context and refreshed twice a year: after the December results season and after the September/Q4 results season.

DCF Valuation
Fair Value = Σ(FCFt / (1+WACC)t) + Terminal Value. Terminal Value uses the Gordon Growth Model: FCF5 × (1+g) / (WACC−g). Default WACC: 10% (US risk-free ~4.5%, equity risk premium ~5.5%). Default terminal growth: 3% (long-run US nominal GDP proxy).

CAGR Tracker
Expected 5-year CAGR = (DCF Fair Value / Current Price)1/5 − 1. Assumes fair value is reached in exactly 5 years — a mechanical estimate only.

Data Sources & Limitations
Financial statements sourced from public filings. Prices updated daily. Forward assumptions are AI-generated. All monetary values in USD millions. Non-US ADR companies may have currency conversion inaccuracies. Models are point-in-time and do not update intra-quarter or account for M&A, macro shocks, or extraordinary items.

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Investment Risk:
Investing in securities, including US equities and ETFs, involves inherent risks including the potential loss of principal. All investments are subject to market fluctuations, economic conditions, regulatory changes, and other factors that may affect their value. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This analysis is provided for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice under any circumstances.

No Investment Recommendation:
This analysis does not constitute, nor should it be interpreted as, an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any securities or financial products. Investors are strongly advised to conduct their own independent research and due diligence and to consult with a licensed financial advisor or an SEC-registered investment adviser before making any investment decisions, taking into account their individual financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives.

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Information Sources:
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