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Vistra Corp.
NYSE: VST Utilities Energy 🔎 Screen
S&P 500
$49.9B
Market Cap
74.0
P/E
0.80
PEG
6.6%
ROCE
17.7%
ROE
4.12
D/E
10.8%
OPM
-35.2%
% from 52W High
20
α RS
🔍 VST is showing a high-conviction setup because it matches 7 of 39 tracked screener presets, Sector RRG has Utilities in the Improving quadrant with the trail still weakening further, and rs_momentum preset's Backtest win rate is 52.6% over 90 days. Net: Broad signal stack, not a recommendation. ? Conviction RRG Backtest
Sources
Conviction 7/39 · Utilities in Improving quadrant · Backtest win rate 52.6%
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🌏 Global Investor Returns
Currency-adjusted total returns for VST including FX impact
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📈 Price History
Ratio Health
Excellent
Good
Average
Poor
By Category
📊 Sector Averages
About

Vistra Corp., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated retail electricity and power generation company in the United States. The company operates through five segments: Retail, Texas, East, West, and Asset Closure. The company retails electricity and natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial customers across states in the United States and the District of Columbia. It is also involved in electricity generation, wholesale energy purchases and sales, commodity risk management, fuel procurement, and fuel logistics management activities. In addition, the company engages in decommissioning and reclamation of retired generation facilities, including mines, and battery removal and remediation activities. It serves approximately 5 million customers with a generation capacity of approximately 44,000 megawatts with a portfolio of natural gas, nuclear, coal, solar, and battery energy storage facilities. The company was formerly known as Vistra Energy Corp. and changed its name to Vistra Corp. in July 2020. Vistra Corp. was founded in 1882 and is based in Irving, Texas.

Key Ratios Snapshot
📈 Growth Pattern
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⭐ Superinvestors Holding VST
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Manager Shares Value % of Fund Period
David Tepper Appaloosa LP 2.02M $304.0M 5.12% Mar 2026
Jim Simons Renaissance Technologies LLC 1.06M $159.6M 0.25% Mar 2026
Steve Cohen Point72 Asset Management 918.7K $138.1M 0.18% Mar 2026

SEC Form 13F data. 45-day lag from quarter end.

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Good quarter Investor Presentation One-Pager? Q2 2026
Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA
$1.767B
+31% YoY
Net Income
$0.305B
-7% YoY
What Went Right
  • Q2 Adjusted EBITDA reached $1.767B vs. $1.349B a year ago, a >30% increase, with both generation ($994M) and retail ($773M) contributing.
  • Fleet commercial availability exceeded 97% during July heat waves while PJM and ERCOT both hit new all-time summer peak loads.
  • Announced Helix Digital Infrastructure with KKR, NVIDIA and KIA, adding a $1B potential investment and preferred-power-partner avenue for growth.
What to Watch
  • ERCOT forward curves are meaningfully lower than the October 31, 2025 levels used for the 2027 guidance, pushing 2027 expectations toward the lower end of the $7.4B–$7.8B range.
  • Texas data center queue audits may pause new interconnection reviews for a couple of months, creating near-term uncertainty for load hook-up timing.
  • PJM's proposed IRAS and 'bring your own new capacity' ideas could introduce stick-based curtailment rather than market incentives, creating regulatory risk.
Management Guidance
  • Reaffirmed 2026 Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA guidance of $6.8B–$7.6B and expects to deliver at or above the midpoint.
  • Reaffirmed 2026 Ongoing Operations Adjusted FCFbG guidance of $3.925B–$4.725B.
  • Maintained 2027 Adjusted EBITDA midpoint opportunity of $7.4B–$7.8B, excluding Cogentrix and Meta PPAs.
  • Hedging positions: ~100% of 2026 expected volumes, ~94% of 2027, and ~72% of 2028.
Investor Lens
The thesis is stronger after this call: record load, 97% fleet availability and a 31% jump in Adjusted EBITDA demonstrate execution, while the Helix partnership expands data-center optionality. The 2027 range is preserved despite ERCOT curve weakness, thanks to PJM strength, hedging and nuclear PTCs. Management also maintains significant dry powder — roughly $2B–$2.5B of additional cash through 2027 — for buybacks, debt paydown or growth. The key overhang is near-term ERCOT oversupply and Texas queue-audit delays, which could defer load additions.
From investor presentation · AI-generated analysis · Not investment advice
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📈 STRONG Adjusted EBITDA +31% to $1.77B; guidance held; 2027 softens
Revenue
No GAAP revenue figure was disclosed. The company instead highlighted Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA of $1.767B, up about 31% from $1.349B in Q2 2025, with retail contributing $773M and generation $994M.
Profitability
Net income was $305M, down from $327M in Q2 2025, due primarily to a $472M unrealized loss on hedges that will settle in future years. Adjusted EBITDA grew over 30% year-over-year, reflecting higher realized prices, higher PJM capacity revenues and Lotus asset contributions.
Margins
No gross or operating margin figures were provided. Management cited fleet commercial availability of greater than 97% during heat waves and noted ERCOT pricing can swing sharply depending on battery dispatch and reserve tightness.
Balance Sheet
Total available liquidity at June 30, 2026 was about $6.295B, including $435M cash, $4.408B under the corporate revolver and $1.452B under the commodity-linked revolver. Management expects more than $10B of available cash across 2026–2027 and roughly $2B–$2.5B remaining after current capital-allocation commitments.
Key Risks
Management flagged materially lower ERCOT forward curves as a key 2027 headwind, though partly offset by PJM strength, hedging and nuclear PTCs. The Texas data center audit could pause near-term interconnection studies for a few months. Regulatory proposals in PJM, including IRAS and possible capacity mandates, remain a source of uncertainty.
Outlook
Management reaffirmed 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance of $6.8B–$7.6B and expects at/above the midpoint. For 2027, they maintained the $7.4B–$7.8B midpoint opportunity range but indicated current trends point toward the lower end before adding Cogentrix and Meta benefits.
Generated by AI · Q2 2026 results · Not investment advice
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✓ 📞 Earnings Call Transcripts (5 quarters) submit a missing quarter
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📞 Earnings Call Transcripts (5)
Q2 2026 Q2 2026 2026-08-07
Second quarter adjusted EBITDA rose over 30% year-over-year to $1.767 billion, driven by strong generation and retail performance. Guidance for 2026 and 2027 was reaffirmed, with significant capital allocated to shareholder returns and growth, including a $1 billion commitment to the Helix data center platform.
Q1 2026 Q1 2026 2026-05-07
Record Q1 adjusted EBITDA of $1.5B, driven by strong generation and retail, with robust demand growth and disciplined capital allocation. Guidance reaffirmed, major acquisitions and PPAs pending, and investment grade ratings achieved.
Q4 2025 Q4 2025 2026-02-26
2025 saw record financial results, major acquisitions, and long-term nuclear PPAs, driving strong cash flow and positioning for sustained growth. Demand from data centers and hyperscalers is fueling robust load growth, with further upside expected from new contracts and asset integration.
Q3 2025 Q3 2025 2025-11-06
Q3 results showed strong adjusted EBITDA, robust cash generation, and continued growth in both generation and retail segments. Guidance was raised for 2025–2027, with major investments in gas and renewables, and a disciplined capital return strategy.
Q2 2025 Q2 2025 2025-08-07
Q2 2025 saw strong financial and operational performance, with adjusted EBITDA of $1.349B and robust demand growth in key markets. Guidance for 2025 and 2026 was reaffirmed or raised, and major growth initiatives—including a 2,600 MW gas asset acquisition—are underway.
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Financial Model
Projections are built from each company's audited annual financials (Income Statement, Balance Sheet, Cash Flow) over the last 5 fiscal years. Forward assumptions — revenue growth %, EBITDA margin, D&A (USD millions), interest expense, tax rate, and capex — are AI-generated using historical context and refreshed twice a year: after the December results season and after the September/Q4 results season.

DCF Valuation
Fair Value = Σ(FCFt / (1+WACC)t) + Terminal Value. Terminal Value uses the Gordon Growth Model: FCF5 × (1+g) / (WACC−g). Default WACC: 10% (US risk-free ~4.5%, equity risk premium ~5.5%). Default terminal growth: 3% (long-run US nominal GDP proxy).

CAGR Tracker
Expected 5-year CAGR = (DCF Fair Value / Current Price)1/5 − 1. Assumes fair value is reached in exactly 5 years — a mechanical estimate only.

Data Sources & Limitations
Financial statements sourced from public filings. Prices updated daily. Forward assumptions are AI-generated. All monetary values in USD millions. Non-US ADR companies may have currency conversion inaccuracies. Models are point-in-time and do not update intra-quarter or account for M&A, macro shocks, or extraordinary items.

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Investment Risk:
Investing in securities, including US equities and ETFs, involves inherent risks including the potential loss of principal. All investments are subject to market fluctuations, economic conditions, regulatory changes, and other factors that may affect their value. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This analysis is provided for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice under any circumstances.

No Investment Recommendation:
This analysis does not constitute, nor should it be interpreted as, an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any securities or financial products. Investors are strongly advised to conduct their own independent research and due diligence and to consult with a licensed financial advisor or an SEC-registered investment adviser before making any investment decisions, taking into account their individual financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives.

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Conflict of Interest Disclosure:
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Information Sources:
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