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Wayfair Inc.
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$12.5B
Market Cap
121.4
P/E
0.52
PEG
7.5%
ROCE
11.3%
ROE
-1.55
D/E
0.7%
OPM
-17.2%
% from 52W High
77
α RS
🔍 W is showing an earnings-catalyst setup because an ECS of 82.1 last quarter, RS Rating is 77, and it's within 17.2% of its 52-week high. The main caution: rising_margins's Backtest win rate is only 47.4%. Net: Mixed signal stack, not a recommendation. ? ECS RS Rating 52W High Backtest
Sources
ECS 82.1 · RS Rating 77 · 17.2% from 52W high · Backtest win rate 47.4%
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🌏 Global Investor Returns
Currency-adjusted total returns for W including FX impact
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📈 Price History
Ratio Health
Excellent
Good
Average
Poor
By Category
📊 Sector Averages
About

Wayfair Inc. engages in the e-commerce business in the United States and internationally. It provides online selections of furniture, décor, housewares, and home improvement products through its sites comprising Wayfair, Joss & Main, AllModern, Birch Lane, Perigold, and Wayfair Professional. The company offers its products under the Three Posts and Mercury Row brands. Wayfair Inc. was founded in 2002 and is headquartered in Boston, Massachusetts.

Key Ratios Snapshot
📈 Growth Pattern
📊 Quick Scorecard
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⭐ Superinvestors Holding W
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Manager Shares Value % of Fund Period
Jim Simons Renaissance Technologies LLC 4.97M $374.0M 0.58% Mar 2026

SEC Form 13F data. 45-day lag from quarter end.

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3-Statement Financial Model
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📊 MIXED Wayfair posts 7% revenue growth, 5.2% adjusted EBITDA margin in Q1 2026 despite macro headwinds.
Revenue & Profitability
Q1 2026 net revenue grew 7.4% year-over-year. Adjusted EBITDA was $151 million, or 5.2% of net revenue. Gross margin was 30.1%. The company ended the quarter with $1.1 billion in cash and equivalents. Free cash flow was negative $106 million. For Q2 2026, guidance calls for mid-single-digit revenue growth and adjusted EBITDA margin of 6%-7%.
Outlook
Management estimates the home furnishings category declined in the low-single-digit range in Q1 2026 and is down 25%-30% versus the 2021 peak. The macro environment remains turbulent with elevated energy prices and consumer pullback. However, management believes the category is cyclical and due for mean reversion, while Wayfair continues to gain market share at a high single-digit spread.
Growth Drivers
Key growth levers include international markets (Canada and U.K.), brick-and-mortar stores (Atlanta, upcoming Columbus and Denver), the Wayfair Rewards loyalty program, Wayfair Verified, B2B sales, home improvement categories, and AI-driven customer experience improvements. Management aims to achieve 20%+ organic growth over time through these compounding initiatives.
Balance Sheet & CapEx
Capital expenditures were $54 million in Q1 2026, and guidance for Q2 2026 is $55 million-$65 million. Investments are focused on logistics infrastructure (CastleGate warehouses), store expansion, and technology (AI, platform improvements). The company also repurchased over $300 million of convertible bonds to manage dilution.
Margins
Adjusted EBITDA margin was 5.2% in Q1 2026, up 130 basis points year-over-year, and guidance for Q2 is 6%-7%. Contribution margin was 15%, up 70 basis points. Gross margin was 30.1%, with investments in Wayfair Rewards and customer experience partially offsetting gains from logistics leverage and supplier ads. SOTG&A was $356 million, the lowest since Q2 2019, demonstrating fixed-cost leverage.
Key Risks
Risks flagged include ongoing macro headwinds from elevated energy and fuel prices, consumer sentiment weakness, and the home category's prolonged contraction (low single-digit declines). Weather disruptions and inflation in items like furniture have also impacted demand. Management notes uncertainty in the timing of category recovery but remains confident in Wayfair's ability to gain share regardless.
Generated by AI · Q1 2026 results · Not investment advice
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✓ 📞 Earnings Call Transcripts (5 quarters) submit a missing quarter
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📞 Earnings Call Transcripts (5)
Q2 2026 Q2 2026 2026-08-04
Q2 2026 saw 7.5% revenue growth, led by strong U.S. and luxury segment performance, with EBITDA margin reaching 6.9%. Guidance for Q3 calls for high-single-digit revenue growth and continued margin expansion, supported by disciplined cost control and investments in stores and technology.
Q1 2026 Q1 2026 2026-04-30
Q1 2026 saw 7.4% revenue growth and a 5.2% adjusted EBITDA margin, outperforming a contracting home furnishings market. Share gains accelerated in both U.S. and international segments, with strong progress in loyalty, technology, and capital management.
Q4 2025 Q4 2025 2026-02-19
Q4 2025 saw strong revenue and profit growth, driven by new customers, loyalty programs, and physical retail expansion, with continued share gains despite a contracting home category. Guidance for 2026 points to ongoing EBITDA and free cash flow growth, supported by disciplined capital allocation and technology investments.
Q3 2025 Q3 2025 2025-10-28
Revenue grew 9% year-over-year (excluding Germany), with adjusted EBITDA up over 70% and margin at 6.7%. Share gains were driven by technology investments, new programs, and strong order momentum, while guidance calls for continued mid-single-digit revenue growth and robust margins.
Q2 2025 Q2 2025 2025-08-04
Q2 2025 saw 5% revenue growth (6% ex-Germany), 30.1% gross margin, and $205M adjusted EBITDA, driven by strong U.S. and international performance, logistics expansion, and new initiatives. Guidance for Q3 anticipates continued growth and profitability, with a clean balance sheet through 2027.
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📊 Analysis Methodology

This comprehensive investment analysis was conducted using The Finmagine™ Stock Analysis & Ranking Methodology, a proprietary framework that systematically evaluates stocks across five critical dimensions: Financial Health, Growth Prospects, Competitive Positioning, Management Quality, and Valuation.

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Financial Model
Projections are built from each company's audited annual financials (Income Statement, Balance Sheet, Cash Flow) over the last 5 fiscal years. Forward assumptions — revenue growth %, EBITDA margin, D&A (USD millions), interest expense, tax rate, and capex — are AI-generated using historical context and refreshed twice a year: after the December results season and after the September/Q4 results season.

DCF Valuation
Fair Value = Σ(FCFt / (1+WACC)t) + Terminal Value. Terminal Value uses the Gordon Growth Model: FCF5 × (1+g) / (WACC−g). Default WACC: 10% (US risk-free ~4.5%, equity risk premium ~5.5%). Default terminal growth: 3% (long-run US nominal GDP proxy).

CAGR Tracker
Expected 5-year CAGR = (DCF Fair Value / Current Price)1/5 − 1. Assumes fair value is reached in exactly 5 years — a mechanical estimate only.

Data Sources & Limitations
Financial statements sourced from public filings. Prices updated daily. Forward assumptions are AI-generated. All monetary values in USD millions. Non-US ADR companies may have currency conversion inaccuracies. Models are point-in-time and do not update intra-quarter or account for M&A, macro shocks, or extraordinary items.

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Investment Risk:
Investing in securities, including US equities and ETFs, involves inherent risks including the potential loss of principal. All investments are subject to market fluctuations, economic conditions, regulatory changes, and other factors that may affect their value. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This analysis is provided for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice under any circumstances.

No Investment Recommendation:
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Information Sources:
The analysis is based on publicly available information including SEC filings (10-K, 10-Q), annual reports, management commentary, and publicly available financial data. Information is believed to be accurate as of the date of publication but may be subject to change without notice. Readers are encouraged to independently verify all information before acting upon it.

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