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Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc.
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$9.9B
Market Cap
23.9
P/E
1.47
PEG
17.0%
ROCE
26.3%
ROE
0.88
D/E
22.9%
OPM
-21.9%
% from 52W High
42
α RS
🔍 WMS is showing a multi-screen setup because it matches 9 of 39 tracked screener presets, Sector RRG has Industrials in the Improving quadrant with the trail still strengthening, and an ECS of 54.8 last quarter. The main caution: the Magic Formula preset's Backtest win rate is only 47.9%. Net: Mixed signal stack, not a recommendation. ? Conviction RRG ECS Backtest
Sources
Conviction 9/39 · Industrials in Improving quadrant · ECS 54.8 · Backtest win rate 47.9%
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About

Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets thermoplastic corrugated pipes and related water management products in the United States, Canada, and internationally. The company operates through Stormwater and Wastewater segments. The company offers single, double, and triple wall corrugated polypropylene and polyethylene pipes; plastic leachfield chambers and systems; EZflow synthetic aggregate bundles; wastewater purification through mechanical aeration wastewater; septic tanks and accessories; combined treatment and dispersal systems, including AeroFin, advanced enviro-septic, enviro-septic, and advanced treatment leachfield; and allied products, including storm retention/detention and septic chambers, polyvinyl chloride drainage structures, fittings, and water quality filters and separators. It also purchases and distributes construction fabrics and other geosynthetic products for soil stabilization, reinforcement, filtration, separation, erosion control, and sub-surface drainage, as well as drainage grates and other products. In addition, the company provides PVC hubs, rubber sleeves, and stainless-steel bands; and channel drains, catch basins, grates, access boxes, and accessories engineered to capture, convey, and disperse stormwater. It offers its products for non-residential, residential, agriculture, and infrastructure applications through a network of distribution centers. Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc. was incorporated in 1966 and is headquartered in Hilliard, Ohio.

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🎙 Management Tone Confident Specific ↑ Improving 4 quarters Full tone analysis in Intelligence →
📊 MIXED Advanced Drainage Systems posts Q4 revenue $677M, adjusted EBITDA margin 27.8%, guides FY2027 $3.35B-$3.55B revenue.
Revenue & Profitability
Q4 FY2026 revenue increased 10% year-over-year to $677 million. Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was 27.8% of revenue. For the full fiscal year, adjusted EBITDA margin was 31.6%, the second highest in company history. Free cash flow for the year was $569 million, compared to $369 million in the prior year. The company generated $819 million in cash from operations, representing an 85% conversion of adjusted EBITDA.
Outlook
Management sees overall demand in FY2027 similar to FY2026, with a slightly more negative outlook for agriculture and single-family housing. Non-residential is expected to be flat to up low single digits, supported by large projects like data centers. Residential remains under pressure from interest rates and uncertainty, but the company expects to outperform the market. The R&R market is expected to remain resilient.
Growth Drivers
Key growth levers include Allied Products (up 12% organically in Q4), advanced treatment systems (Orenco), tank products (double-digit growth), and cross-selling opportunities following the NDS acquisition. Agriculture sales grew 30% in Q4 due to pre-buying ahead of price increases. The company is expanding its recycling capacity in the Southeast and investing in automation and production lines.
Balance Sheet & CapEx
In FY2026, capital expenditures were $250 million, focused on growth initiatives in key geographies, customer service, productivity, automation, expanding Infiltrator production capacity, and increasing recycling capacity in the Southeast. No explicit CapEx guidance was given for FY2027. The company also refinanced near-term maturities and increased its revolving credit facility to $750 million.
Margins
Adjusted EBITDA margin for Q4 was 27.8%, reflecting favorable growth, product mix, price-cost, and operational self-help. For the full year, adjusted EBITDA margin was 31.6%. Management expects FY2027 margins to face dilution from dollar-for-dollar pricing actions to offset inflation, with the timing causing some choppiness. SG&A is expected to be around 14% of revenue, down from 15%+ in FY2026, providing leverage.
Key Risks
Key risks flagged include significant inflation on diesel and common carrier rates, which impacted transportation costs in Q4. Customers buying ahead of price increases could create an 'air pocket' in demand during the summer. Geopolitical uncertainty and interest rate dynamics continue to pressure single-family housing. The company also noted potential volume compression in agriculture and residential land development projects.
Generated by AI · Q4 2026 results · Not investment advice
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✓ 📞 Earnings Call Transcripts (5 quarters) submit a missing quarter
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📞 Earnings Call Transcripts (5)
Q1 2027 Q1 2027 2026-08-06
Record Q1 revenue and EBITDA were driven by strong stormwater and wastewater growth, disciplined price-cost management, and NDS integration. Despite inflationary headwinds, guidance is maintained, with continued investment in recycling and automation, and robust capital returns to shareholders.
Q4 2026 Q4 2026 2026-05-21
Strong fiscal 2026 results driven by diversified growth, robust free cash flow, and successful NDS integration. Fiscal 2027 guidance anticipates flat to modest growth amid inflationary pressures, with continued margin resilience and capital deployment for growth and shareholder returns.
Q3 2026 Q3 2026 2026-02-05
Delivered record profitability with a 30.2% Adjusted EBITDA margin and raised fiscal 2026 guidance, driven by strong Allied and Infiltrator product growth, successful NDS acquisition, and disciplined capital allocation. Non-residential sales outperformed, while residential remained soft.
Q2 2026 Q2 2026 2025-11-06
Second quarter results showed 9% revenue and 17% adjusted EBITDA growth, with a 33.8% margin, driven by strong execution, new products, and stable pricing. Guidance for fiscal 2026 was raised, but management remains cautious due to demand uncertainty and seasonality.
Q1 2026 Q1 2026 2025-08-07
Q1 delivered a 2% revenue increase and a 33.5% adjusted EBITDA margin, driven by strong performance in higher-margin segments and disciplined cost management. Guidance remains unchanged amid tepid demand, with continued investment in innovation and capacity.
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Financial Model
Projections are built from each company's audited annual financials (Income Statement, Balance Sheet, Cash Flow) over the last 5 fiscal years. Forward assumptions — revenue growth %, EBITDA margin, D&A (USD millions), interest expense, tax rate, and capex — are AI-generated using historical context and refreshed twice a year: after the December results season and after the September/Q4 results season.

DCF Valuation
Fair Value = Σ(FCFt / (1+WACC)t) + Terminal Value. Terminal Value uses the Gordon Growth Model: FCF5 × (1+g) / (WACC−g). Default WACC: 10% (US risk-free ~4.5%, equity risk premium ~5.5%). Default terminal growth: 3% (long-run US nominal GDP proxy).

CAGR Tracker
Expected 5-year CAGR = (DCF Fair Value / Current Price)1/5 − 1. Assumes fair value is reached in exactly 5 years — a mechanical estimate only.

Data Sources & Limitations
Financial statements sourced from public filings. Prices updated daily. Forward assumptions are AI-generated. All monetary values in USD millions. Non-US ADR companies may have currency conversion inaccuracies. Models are point-in-time and do not update intra-quarter or account for M&A, macro shocks, or extraordinary items.

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Investment Risk:
Investing in securities, including US equities and ETFs, involves inherent risks including the potential loss of principal. All investments are subject to market fluctuations, economic conditions, regulatory changes, and other factors that may affect their value. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This analysis is provided for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice under any circumstances.

No Investment Recommendation:
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Information Sources:
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